Bond yields soar as IIP sags to 1.9% in September against 4.1% in August

11 Nov 2011 Evaluate
Bond yields edged up on Friday as traders shed positions ahead of key factory output data and the results of a $2.6 billion debt sale later in the day. The market was closed on Thursday for a local holiday.The street expectation was that Indian industrial output growth probably slowed to an annual rate of 3.5% in September, weighed down by slower growth in infrastructure output and higher domestic borrowing costs.

On the global front, US Treasury prices eased on Thursday after an Italian debt auction went better than feared and the country moved closer to a national unity government. At a sale of 1-year treasury bills, Rome paid a 6.087 percent yield, the most in 14 years, but placed the full planned 5 billion euros. Italy moved closer to a national unity government on Thursday, following Greece's lead where after five days of chaotic haggling former European Central bank vice-president Lucas Papademos was appointed to head an interim crisis cabinet. 

Meanwhile, in Asian trade, the 10-year U.S. benchmark bond yield was at 2.06 percent from 2.07 percent in late New York trade, when it had climbed 10 basis points.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 7.80% - 2021 bonds 2021 bonds were trading at 8.93% from Wednesday's close of 8.90%. While, the benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading at 7.44% from Wednesday's close of 7.43%.

Post IIP Data:

India's annual industrial output growth measured by index of industrial production (IIP) with an updated base of 2004-05, has contracted sharply to a worse than expected 1.9% pace in September to 163.2, as compared to 160.3 in the month of September 2010. The cumulative growth for the period April-September 2011-12 stands at 5.0% over the corresponding period of the previous year.

According to the data released by Central Statistics Office, the IIP for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of September 2011 stand at 111.0, 175.7 and 144.1 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of -5.6%, 2.1% and 9.0% as compared to September 2010.

As per Use-based classification, the growth rates in September 2011 over September 2010 was 4.5% in Basic goods, -6.8% in Capital goods and 1.5% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 8.7% and -1.3% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 3.5%.
The yields on 10-year benchmark 7.80% - 2021 bonds 2021 bonds were trading at 8.97% from Wednesday's close of 8.90%.
The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading at 7.47% from 7.43% at Wednesday's close

The Government of India has announced the sale (re-issue) of  three dated securities for  Rs 13,000 crore on November 11, 2011, which includes (i) “7.99% Government Stock 2017” for a notified amount of  Rs 4,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction, (ii) “New 13 year Government Stock 2024” for a notified amount of  Rs 6,000 crore (nominal) through yield  based auction and (iii) “8.30% Government Stock 2040” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction.

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