Moody's warn of rupee fall impacting India’s sovereign rating

19 Jul 2013 Evaluate

Moody's Investors Service which is having “stable” outlook on India’s “Baa3” rating, its lowest investment grade-rating, has warned that the rupee’s depreciation will exacerbate inflationary and fiscal pressures, with both factors potentially constraining the country's sovereign rating. Moody’s on the same time moved the outlook on the US government back to stable and affirmed the Aaa rating, assessing the federal government’s debt trajectory to be on track.

The global ratings agency has also painted a grim possibility of any major gains in the rupee during the current fiscal saying that the continuing global volatility and domestic political uncertainty ahead of the 2014 general elections will limit chances of any significant appreciation apart from further impact growth. India's recent measures to prop up the rupee may limit exchange rate volatility to some degree, but a sustained reversal in the rupee would require a significant narrowing of the trade deficit or large capital flows, Moody's added.

Moody's has warned that rupee depreciation is likely to impact inflation and financial stability, that may thus keep domestic borrowing costs high and extend the current slowdown. However, it noted that foreign currency-denominated debt is only about 6% of the total government debt, so depreciation will not materially increase the sovereign's debt repayment burden, though it will raise the cost of servicing foreign currency government debt.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×