Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity markets ended a volatile day of trade with losses on Monday. Traders avoided to take risk ahead of key macroeconomic data i.e. inflation and industrial growth data, which are going to be out on November 12. Most part of the day, markets traded below neutral lines. However, the broader indices, the BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index ended with gains. 

Markets made negative start and remained lower following mixed cues from Asian counterparts pulled down by a tumbling South Korean market amid the ongoing political turmoil in the country as well as the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine war. Some cautiousness came as industry body CII has suggested the government to stick to the fiscal deficit target of 4.9 per cent of GDP for 2024-25 and 4.5 per cent for 2025-26, cautioning that overly aggressive targets beyond these could adversely affect India's economic growth. In late morning session, indices managed to hit green terrain but failed to hold gains and once again entered into red. Traders overlooked data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) showing that Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have crossed the $1 trillion milestone in the April 2000-September 2024 period, firmly establishing the country's reputation as a safe and key investment destination globally. The cumulative amount of FDI, including equity, reinvested earnings and other capital, stood at $1,033.40 billion during the said period. In afternoon session, markets continued to reel under pressure. Sentiments were downbeat, as SBI forecasted India's GDP growth at 6.3%, lower than RBIs projection of 6.6% for FY25 in its latest report. Finally, Nifty and Sensex settled below the psychological 24,650 and 81,600 levels, respectively.

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in green amid the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates again this week. Asian markets ended mixed as Chinese inflation data signaled continued demand weakness and political turmoil continued in South Korea after President Yoon survived impeachment. Back home, Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw has said that India will continue to grow at 6-8 per cent for the next five years due to the transformative changes ushered in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the face of global turmoil and geopolitical tensions.

The BSE Sensex ended at 81,508.46, down by 200.66 points or 0.25% after trading in a range of 81,411.55 and 81,783.28. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index gained 0.32%, while Small cap index was up by 0.46%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Capital Goods up by 1.08%, Industrials up by 1.01%, Telecom up by 0.62%, Consumer Durables up by 0.56% and Metal was up by 0.49%, while FMCG down by 1.93%, Energy down by 0.65%, Auto down by 0.64%, Healthcare down by 0.37% and Oil & Gas was down by 0.34% were the losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Larsen & Toubro up by 2.12%, Tata Steel up by 1.05%, JSW Steel up by 1.04%, HDFC Bank up by 0.72% and Adani Ports &Special up by 0.48%. On the flip side, Hindustan Unilever down by 3.37%, Tata Motors down by 2.19%, Axis Bank down by 1.64%, Nestle down by 1.60% and Asian Paints down by 1.50% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, after the Reserve Bank of India sharply slashed its growth projection to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal from 7.2 per cent earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowdown in September quarter (Q2) was not ‘systemic’ and the economic activity in third quarter (Q3), with better public expenditure, is likely to compensate for the moderation. India recorded a 7-quarter low GDP growth of 5.4 per cent in July-September FY25. In the first quarter, the growth was 6.7 per cent. She added so, growth number is something which is not necessarily going to get badly affected. She also said ‘We need to push up on many other factors’, and added India would continue to be the fastest-growing economy next year and thereafter.

Growth momentum was low in the first quarter due to general election and reduction in capital expenditure. This has had a bearing on the second quarter as well. In the first half, the government spent only 37.3 per cent of its capital expenditure target of Rs 11.11 lakh crore for FY25. Sitharaman said other factors affecting growth include plateauing global demand that affected export growth. She also said ‘Purchasing power of Indians is improving, but within India, you also have concerns of wages saturating. We are quite seized of these factors which might have a play on India's own consumption’. The finance ministry, in its Economic Survey for FY24, had estimated a GDP growth of 6.5-7 per cent for the current fiscal year.

She further said ‘We have a Prime Minister who looks at opportunities in each of the challenges. During Covid-19, the challenge was seen as an opportunity for bringing in reforms. Five mini budgets were presented at that time, each of them giving relief, support and handholding on one hand and on the other making sure that small and overlooked pending reforms were taken’. She added being the voice of the Global South for some time now, India will carry forward its role that everyone saw during India's G20 Presidency. Every time Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes up an issue of global importance, he does consult the Global South and takes their concerns forward.

The CNX Nifty ended at 24,619.00, down by 58.80 points or 0.24% after trading in a range of 24,580.05 and 24,705.00. There were 21 stocks advancing against 29 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Wipro up by 2.15%, Larsen & Toubro up by 2.08%, SBI Life up by 1.43%, Tata Steel up by 1.07% and BPCL up by 1.03%. On the flip side, Tata Consumer down by 4.16%, Hindustan Unilever down by 3.34%, Tata Motors down by 2.21%, Axis Bank down by 1.80% and Nestle down by 1.72% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading mostly in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 27.36 points or 0.33% to 8,335.97 and France’s CAC was down by 26.99 points or 0.36% to 7,453.87. On the flip side, Germany’s DAX was down by 13.17 points or 0.06% to 20,371.44.

Asian markets settled mixed on Monday, tracking mixed Wall Street last Friday. Data showed that US non-farm payroll employment shot up by 227,000 jobs in November, while the uptick by the unemployment rate increased confidence the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 bps later this month. Japanese shares gained slightly after an upward revision of Japan's GDP print for the third quarter. However, Seoul shares declined after South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol survived an impeachment vote in parliament and a defense ministry spokesman said he still is commander in chief, deepening a leadership crisis. Chinese Shares fell as China’s consumer inflation unexpectedly decelerated in November while factory deflation eased, painting a mixed picture of the effects of recent stimulus efforts on the economy ahead China’s Central Economic Work Conference this week.