Global cotton offtake may fall in 2011-12

08 Sep 2011 Evaluate

After a year of tightly balanced conditions, policy aberrations and record high prices, the global cotton market fundamentals are set to change dramatically in 2011-12. Going by the latest projections of International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), global consumption is likely to trail global production by 2.2 million tonnes and ending stocks are expected to rise by 2.1 million tonnes compared to the previous year. The projected increase in the stocks-to-use ratio outside of China could translate to significant decline in the season-average Cotlook A Index.


For 2011-12, ICAC has projected world cotton production of 26.9 million tonnes (24.9 million tonnes) and consumption of 24.7 million tonnes (24.4 million tonnes). Imports are expected to rebound by 7 per cent to 8.1 million tonnes in 2011-12 (7.7 million tonnes) fuelled by larger crop output, higher consumption and rebuilding of the Chinese Government reserves, the report observed adding that Australia, Brazil and India will drive the rise in exports.

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