Markets likely to get cautious start amid Asian mixed cues

Indian markets started the new calendar year on a positive note as the benchmark indices ended higher on Wednesday amid buying seen across the sectors barring metal and realty names. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start tracking mixed cues from Asian counterparts. There will be some cautiousness ahead of India Nifty’s weekly F&O expiry later in the day. Investors will be eyeing India’s Manufacturing PMI data for December, to be out later in the day for more directional cues. However, some support may come as provisional data released by the government showed that the net goods and services tax (GST) collection grew marginally by 3.3 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 1.54 trillion in December, amid an increase in refunds. Sequentially, the mop-up was lower than November’s level of Rs 1.63 trillion, which saw 11.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth. Traders may take note of Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s statement that the country's agriculture and allied sector is expected to grow at 3.5-4 per cent in 2024-25, marking a significant improvement from the 1.4 per cent rise recorded in FY24. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has made integrated filing for Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) effective for all disclosures starting with the quarter ending December 2024. The measures aim to ease compliance and simplify disclosure requirements by integrating periodic filings under two broad categories: governance and financial. There will be some buzz in auto stocks with report that the domestic passenger vehicle (PV) wholesales in the Indian automobile industry rose by 11 per cent Y-o-Y in December to 320,000 units, driven by strong demand for SUVs (sports utility vehicles), a robust recovery in the urban market, year-end discounts, and solid sales of CNG-powered cars. Telecom stocks will be in focus as the quarterly performance indicator report released by Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) showed that telecom operators' gross revenue increased 10.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 91,426 crore in September 2024 quarter - the period when mobile service providers increased tariff. There will be some reaction in oil & gas and aviation industry stocks as the price of Jet fuel, or ATF, was reduced by 1.5 per cent and rates of commercial LPG that is used in hotels and restaurants was cut by Rs 14.5 per 19-kg cylinder in the monthly revision done in line with benchmark international prices. Fertiliser stocks will be in limelight as the Centre extended the additional subsidy on di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) beyond December 31, 2024.

The US markets remained close on Wednesday on account of New Year holiday. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday as several major markets resumed trading after the New Year’s Day holiday. 

Back home, snapping two-day falling streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended around half a percent higher on first trading session of 2025, driven by robust performances in Auto, Capital Goods and Industrials sectors. After making a cautious start, key gauges traded lower amid foreign fund outflows. Data from the National Securities Depository showed that India experienced a drastic drop in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows in 2024, with net investments falling by 99 per cent compared to the previous year. The data highlighted that the net FPI inflows came down from Rs 1.71 lakh crore in 2023 to just Rs 2,026 crore in 2024. Some cautiousness came as the government data showed that the output of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent in November 2024 against 7.9 per cent growth registered in the same month last year. On a monthly basis, the production growth of these sectors last month rose to a four-month high. However, markets erased initial losses and entered into green terrain in late morning deals, as traders took support with a report by economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stating that India's overall exports of goods and services in 2024 has estimated to cross $814 billion, an increase of 5.58 per cent. In 2023, the country's merchandise and services exports stood at $768.5 billion. Sentiments remained upbeat in late afternoon deals as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest report ‘Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit - November 2024’ has showed that credit to agriculture and allied activities registered a growth of 15.3 per cent (y-o-y) as on the fortnight ended November 29, 2024 (18.1 per cent for the corresponding fortnight of the previous year). Adding to the optimism, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi highlighted that India is emerging as a global economic leader with resilience and innovation. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 368.40 points or 0.47% to 78,507.41, and the CNX Nifty was up by 98.10 points or 0.41% to 23,742.90.