Sensex, Nifty trade in red in early deals; Reliance Industries leads gainers

Indian equity benchmarks made a cautious start on Friday amid mixed global cues as traders reacted to a slew of economic data from China. They also remained cautious and took a step back to assess the US Fed's near-term interest rate trajectory. Sensex and Nifty are trading in red with cut of over half a percent as investors booked some profit after three consecutive sessions of gains. Some cautiousness came as FICCI forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6.4 per cent for the financial year 2024-25. This marks a downward revision from the 7.0 per cent projection made in September 2024 and reflects a notable slowdown from the 8.2 per cent growth recorded in 2023-24. However, downside remained capped as the World Bank maintained its growth forecast for India at 6.7 per cent for FY26, reaffirming the nation’s position as the fastest-growing major economy over the next two years.

On the sectoral front, road sector stocks are in focus as ICRA revised its forecast of road execution by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) in the financial year 2025 to 10,000-10,500 kilometres (km) from its earlier estimate of 12,500-13,000 km. In stock specific development, Reliance Industries leading the gainers on the indices after announcing a record quarterly profit.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 76524.25, down by 518.57 points or 0.67% after trading in a range of 76511.81 and 77069.19. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index fell 0.19%, while Small cap index was down by 0.37%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Energy up by 1.13%, Metal up by 1.06%, Realty up by 0.90%, Oil & Gas up by 0.82% and Capital Goods up by 0.49%, while IT down by 2.50%, TECK down by 2.13%, Bankex down by 1.68%, Consumer Durables down by 0.31% and Auto down by 0.20% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Industries up by 2.44%, Larsen & Toubro up by 1.33%, Sun Pharma up by 0.92%, Asian Paints up by 0.90% and Nestle up by 0.90%. On the flip side, Infosys down by 4.73%, Axis Bank down by 4.20%, TCS down by 1.90%, HCL Technologies down by 1.71% and Indusind Bank down by 1.17% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in its Economic Outlook Survey has lowered India's growth projection for the current financial year (FY25) to 6.4 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in the previous round conducted during the month of September last year. The revised projection is in line with the broad expectations and reflect a notable slowdown vis--vis 8.2 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth recorded in 2023-24. 

The agricultural sector, including allied activities, is expected to grow at 3.6 per cent in 2024-25. The industry and services sectors, on the other hand, are projected to expand by 6.3 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in 2024-25. Economic activity is expected to witness an uptick in the second half of current fiscal supported by a revival in public capital expenditure, festive demand and normalization in industrial activity post monsoon.

CPI based inflation has a median forecast of 4.8 per cent for 2024-25. This is in line with the RBI’s projection in the latest monetary policy announcement in December 2024. The latest survey was conducted in December 2024 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The participating economists observed global economy in 2025 to present a reasonable growth trajectory, with an underlying note of caution.

According to the Survey participants, India's economic outlook for 2025 presents cautious optimism, amidst the backdrop of persisting external headwinds. Consumer spending is expected to gain momentum, driven by an improved outlook for the agriculture sector, which is likely to bolster rural consumption and sentiment in the first half of the next fiscal year. Food inflation which has remained elevated for over a year and strained household budgets, is expected to ease. Furthermore, monetary easing by the RBI, resulting in lower interest rates, could also provide an additional impetus to consumption.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 23193.80, down by 118.00 points or 0.51% after trading in a range of 23167.05 and 23292.10. There were 29 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 2.17%, Hindalco up by 1.90%, BPCL up by 1.57%, Coal India up by 1.45% and Sun Pharma up by 1.40%. On the flip side, Infosys down by 5.53%, Axis Bank down by 5.02%, TCS down by 1.48%, ICICI Bank down by 1.45% and Wipro down by 1.44% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mostly in green; Jakarta Composite gained 34.62 points or 0.48% to 7,142.14, Hang Seng advanced 33.93 points or 0.17% to 19,556.82, Taiwan Weighted added 23.37 points or 0.1% to 23,048.47, Straits Times rose 14.29 points or 0.37% to 3,815.42 and Shanghai Composite was up by 12.87 points or 0.4% to 3,248.90. On the other hand, Nikkei 225 slipped 262.46 points or 0.69% to 38,310.14 and KOSPI was down by 4.12 points or 0.16% to 2,523.37.