Post Session: Quick Review

After rising for three straight sessions, Indian markets came under selling pressure on last trading day of the week amid profit booking by investors. Investors continued to monitor Q3 earnings. During the day, indices did not break out in green and remained firmly placed in the red territory throughout the day, as traders avoided to take risk. 

Some of the important factors for the markets:

Donald Trump's tariff fears: Investors were worried about the potential global economic shifts under Donald Trump's second presidential term. Donald Trump is set to be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on January 20. 

FICCI forecasts India’s GDP growth: Traders were cautious as FICCI forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6.4 per cent for the financial year 2024-25. This marks a downward revision from the 7.0 per cent projection made in September 2024 and reflects a notable slowdown from the 8.2 per cent growth recorded in 2023-24.

IT sector stocks remain in pressure: In a day, IT sectors stocks went through hefty losses even after Infosys has reported 11.60% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 6,822 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2024 as compared to Rs 6,113 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. Meanwhile, Wipro’s Q3 numbers going to be out later in a day.  

Global front: European markets were trading higher as yields across European government bonds eased amid bets on Fed and ECB rate cuts. Asian markets ended mostly in green after China’s fourth-quarter GDP beat estimates. China's gross domestic product expanded 5.4 percent on year in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding expectations for 5.0 percent and up from 4.6 percent in Q3.

The BSE Sensex ended at 76,619.33, down by 423.49 points or 0.55% after trading in a range of 76,263.29 and 77,069.19. There were 16 stocks advancing against 14 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.04%, while Small cap index up by 0.01%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Energy up by 1.63%, Capital Goods up by 1.59%, Metal up by 1.54%, Realty up by 1.35% and Oil & Gas was up by 1.25%, while IT down by 2.48%, TECK down by 2.15%, Bankex down by 1.83% and Auto was down by 0.28% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Zomato up by 2.69%, Reliance Industries up by 2.50%, Nestle up by 1.97%, Asian Paints up by 1.92% and Power Grid up by 1.90%. On the flip side, Infosys down by 5.67%, Axis Bank down by 4.59%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 2.59%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.93% and ICICI Bank down by 1.92% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in its Economic Outlook Survey has lowered India's growth projection for the current financial year (FY25) to 6.4 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in the previous round conducted during the month of September last year. The revised projection is in line with the broad expectations and reflect a notable slowdown vis--vis 8.2 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth recorded in 2023-24. 

The agricultural sector, including allied activities, is expected to grow at 3.6 per cent in 2024-25. The industry and services sectors, on the other hand, are projected to expand by 6.3 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in 2024-25. Economic activity is expected to witness an uptick in the second half of current fiscal supported by a revival in public capital expenditure, festive demand and normalization in industrial activity post monsoon.

CPI based inflation has a median forecast of 4.8 per cent for 2024-25. This is in line with the RBI’s projection in the latest monetary policy announcement in December 2024. The latest survey was conducted in December 2024 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The participating economists observed global economy in 2025 to present a reasonable growth trajectory, with an underlying note of caution.

According to the Survey participants, India's economic outlook for 2025 presents cautious optimism, amidst the backdrop of persisting external headwinds. Consumer spending is expected to gain momentum, driven by an improved outlook for the agriculture sector, which is likely to bolster rural consumption and sentiment in the first half of the next fiscal year. Food inflation which has remained elevated for over a year and strained household budgets, is expected to ease. Furthermore, monetary easing by the RBI, resulting in lower interest rates, could also provide an additional impetus to consumption.

The CNX Nifty ended at 23,203.20, down by 108.60 points or 0.47% after trading in a range of 23100.35 and 23,292.10. There were 29 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 2.83%, BPCL up by 2.51%, Hindalco up by 2.39%, Coal India up by 2.32% and Nestle up by 2.21%. On the flip side, Infosys down by 5.86%, Axis Bank down by 4.52%, Shriram Finance down by 3.71%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 2.60% and Mahindra & Mahindra down by 2.12% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading higher; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 77.6 points or 0.92% to 8,469.50, France’s CAC rose 74.6 points or 0.97% to 7,709.34 and Germany’s DAX was up by 199.32 points or 0.96% to 20,854.71.

Asian markets settled mostly higher on Friday after China’s GDP grew 5.4% over the year in the fourth quarter of 2024 after reporting a 4.6% expansion in the third quarter, while the Chinese economy expanded 5% for the whole year of 2024 in line with the official growth target. Separate data revealed that China’s industrial production climbed 6.2% in December from a year earlier versus expectations of 5.4%, and Retail sales in December jumped 3.7% from a year earlier, exceeding forecast of 3.5%. The markets were cheered further by comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that officials could lower rates again in the first half of 2025 if inflation data continue to be favourable. But some gains were limited by caution ahead of a US holiday weekend and President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration and tariff policies. Japanese shares declined as the yen surged amid expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike next week. Earlier this week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had said that a hike was possible if economic and price conditions continue to improve. Seoul shares fell, a day after the Bank of Korea surprised markets by keeping its policy interest rate at 3%, contrary to widespread expectations of a 25-basis point cut.