India’s Q2 GDP growth may be below 7.7%: Mukherjee

14 Nov 2011 Evaluate

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the June-September 2011 to be lower than the growth achieved in April-June quarter. He said, with the worldwide financial crisis, he did not expect the GDP growth rate to improve in this quarter, although some improvement might be possible in the third quarter.

On the back of unfavorable economic condition in the global economy, high inflation along with high interest rates regime in the first quarter of 2011-12, country’s economic growth fell to 7.7%, the slowest in the last 6 quarters.

Mukherjee further admitted that private sector investment has declined, because of the negative sentiments. However, he tried to lift the moral of Indian corporates and top bankers by saying, 'the global financial crisis may have some adverse impact on the economy, but my appeal to you is don't indulge in any sort of despondency or frustration.' By adding further he urged the corporate sector to make more fresh investment and boost growth. 'The government is with you. Sometimes we have to move carefully, but we are cautious about the pitfalls.'

On the financial health of the government, Mukherjee accepted that in the current economic environment, it would be difficult to meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.6% in the 2011-12. However, finance minister made it clear that the government would not hesitate to take difficult decisions to correct fiscal parameters, if needed.

On inflation, Mukherjee said that the government was taking every possible step to bring down inflation, from double digits. Headline inflation measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI), for August stood at 9.72%, inflation has been hovering above 9% mark for almost a year. 

On the liquidity situation in the Indian banking system, State Bank of India chairman Pratip Chaudhuri said that there was ample liquidity in the banking system and no dearth of capital for lending. 'We are waiting for projects to come.'

On this issue finance minister said bank lending needs to grow at 20-21% to achieve a 9% GDP growth. By adding he said that the government has infused Rs 1,000 crore in banks this fiscal so far and will inject another Rs 5,000 crore over the next five months. Banks would need fresh funds to support their lending growth as Basel III regime is imminent from January 2013, and this would increase the requirement of capital.

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