Crisil in its report said that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.5% in financial year 2025-26 (FY26), marginally higher than ongoing fiscal year which is estimated to grow at 6.4%. Crisil's outlook highlighted that while government spending will continue to support economic growth, the overall fiscal impulse will reduce as fiscal consolidation progresses. Another significant factor is the private investment which need to pick pace.
The report suggested, assuming a normal monsoon and lower crude oil prices, the lower inflation and expected rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will support growth. With expectation of a normal monsoon, high base effect in food inflation, and softer global commodity prices the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is likely to ease up to 4.4% in FY26 compared to 4.7% in FY25. However, due to an adverse base effect the non-food inflation might increase slightly. Moreover, global trade challenges, mainly the headwind from United States’ tariff hike, could create complications for exports.
The report also added that with controlled revenue spending while maintaining a strong focus on capital expenditure India's fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 4.8 per cent in FY25 and further to 4.4 per cent in FY26. However, due to export headwind from United States’ tariff hike the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to extend from 1% of GDP in FY25 to 1.3% in FY26. The lower crude oil prices, strong services trade balance and steady remittances will prevent the CAD from further widening.
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