Amid a likely moderation in industrial output, the government lowered its GDP growth projection for 2011-12 to 8.6% from 9%. As first quarter growth figures for the current fiscal are still to be released, the outlook for 2011-12 has to be inferred from movements of past data, as well as higher frequency proxy economic indicators. While annual indicators of real GDP growth remained positive in 2010-11, there was a “perceptible slowdown” in terms of quarterly growth rates in the last two quarters. The economy grew by just 8.3% in the third quarter last fiscal and 7.8% in the January-March period, the lowest in five quarters.
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