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Finance Ministry to declare war on CAD next week

07 Aug 2013 Evaluate

As part of an all-out effort to hold back the widening current account deficit (CAD), which has sent the rupee into a free fall and further weakened the economy, the Finance Ministry is set to announce a major package next week, comprising of a combination of import compression, long-term external commercial borrowing and foreign capital flow management.

Indian rupee’s further depreciation to fresh lows against dollar on Tuesday, confirmed that emergency measures introduced by the Reserve Bank of India last month to curb volatility had failed. This further built pressure on government to introduce new measures to steam its ongoing freefall.

Given that higher CAD is a direct outcome of export earnings falling short of the import bill leading to shortage of dollars, the customs duty on non-essential commodities such as electronic goods, cars and high-end bikes is likely to go up in order to discourage their import. Meanwhile, the government also expects to contain gold imports to the last year's level of 845 million tonnes to save a considerable amount of foreign exchange, which would help contain CAD.

Further, the finance ministry is also counting on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) easing interest rates and pumping more liquidity into the system to revive the economy once the rupee stabilises and volatility in the currency market has ebbed.

India’s currency has depreciated around 13% of its value over the past four months, prompting the RBI to introduce a series of reforms in mid-July designed to drain liquidity from the economy, including measures to raise short-term lending rates for banks.

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