India’s GDP growth likely to rise to 6.4% in Q3 FY25: ICRA

18 Feb 2025 Evaluate

Credit rating agency ICRA has projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of India’s Gross domestic product (GDP) to rise to 6.4% in Q3 FY2025 from the seven-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2 FY2025, benefitting from enhanced Government spending amid uneven consumption. Further, the growth in the gross value added (GVA) is estimated to record a relatively broad-based improvement to 6.6% in Q3 FY2025 from 5.6% in Q2 FY2025, driven by the industrial (to +6.2% from +3.6%), services (to +7.7% from +7.1%), and agricultural (to +4.0% from +3.5%) sectors. On a sombre note, the GDP and GVA growth in Q3 FY2025 is foreseen to continue to trail the NSO’s initial growth estimates for Q1 FY2025 (+6.7% and +6.8%, respectively), which had seen some sectors affected by the Parliamentary elections, the Model Code of Conduct, and also the heat wave in some states.

ICRA estimates that the growth in net indirect taxes (in nominal terms) eased significantly to low single digits in the quarter from 7.9% in Q2 FY2025, owing to a sharp, albeit base effect-led rise in the YoY increase in subsidy disbursement by the Centre (to +31.1% in Q3 FY2025 from +4.3% in Q2 FY2025; -53.6% in Q3 FY2024; -7.6% in Q2 FY2024). As a result, the GDP expansion would continue to trail that in the GVA in Q3 FY2025 for the third quarter in a row, with a similar trend expected in the full year as well.

ICRA projects the industrial GVA growth to record a broad-based pick-up to 6.2% in Q3 FY2025 from 3.6% in Q2 FY2025, led by manufacturing (to +5.0% from +2.2%), construction (to +9.5% from +7.7%), electricity (to +5.0% from +3.3%), and mining and quarrying (to +2.5% from -0.1%), with the latter two sub-sectors partly benefitting from the easing in rainfall. India’s investment activity improved in Q3 FY2025, as reflected in the uptick in the YoY growth in several investment-related indicators vis-a-vis Q2. This includes capital and infrastructure goods’ output, cement production, engineering goods’ exports, and capital spending of the Centre and state governments. The YoY expansion in the GoI’s capex surged to a six-quarter high of 47.7% in Q3 FY2025 from 10.3% in Q2 FY2025.


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