Impact of US reciprocal tariff to be limited on India: S&P Global Ratings

20 Feb 2025 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings has said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years. He added ‘these growth rates, even though slower than before, continue to place India above sovereign peers at similar income levels, and we do believe that this will continue to support fiscal revenue growth despite the income tax cuts’.

He said the fiscal 2025-26 budget will boost growth for the next few years, largely by domestic demand through tax cuts for households and GDP growth is now normalising to a more ‘sustainable level’. He said ‘The government remains very much focused on investment-led growth and also on agriculture sector reforms. However, we do think that economic expansion in India is startling to normalise towards a more sustainable level after real growth had averaged 8.3 per cent over the last three years post-pandemic.’

S&P Global Ratings has a 'BBB-' rating on India, which is the lowest investment grade. The outlook on the rating was positive, from stable, in May, 2024. Phua further said India's fiscal metrics continue to be quite positive and the tax revenue to GDP has grown over the last few years to around 12 per cent currently. The central government deficit has been lower since the pandemic years. S&P believes that the government will meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.8 per cent and 4.4 per cent for the current and the next fiscal respectively.


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