Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity benchmarks ended Monday’s trading session flat with negative bias due to heavy selling in major stocks. After making a positive opening, markets soon entered into red terrain, as investors’ sentiment remained cautious due to uncertainties around US President Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China this week. Strong GDP numbers failed to uplift sentiments. In afternoon session, indices trimmed most of their losses, but remined under pressure, as some cautiousness came as fiscal deficit till January widens of revised target. The central government's fiscal deficit up to January this financial year hit 74.5% of the revised annual target, compared with 63.6% a year before. 

Some of the important factors in today’s trade:

FII outflows surge: Sentiments were downbeat with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 11,639.02 crore on Friday, according to exchange data.

India’s Manufacturing PMI slips to 56.3 in February: Traders were cautious as India's manufacturing activity grew at slow pace in the month of February. According to the survey report, the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 56.3 in February as against 57.7 in January.

Key Infrastructure sectors expand 4.6% in January: Trades took note of Ministry of Commerce & Industry in its latest data has showed that the output of eight key infrastructure sectors rose by 4.6 per cent in January against a 4.2 per cent expansion in the same month of last year.

Global front: European markets were trading in green as investors react to the latest tariff news and Europe's peace efforts in Ukraine. Traders also shifted focus to the European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday, with street expecting another 25-bps rate cut. Asian markets ended in mixed after China‘s factory activity numbers rose more than expected, and on China’s positive PMI data for February. China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months to 50.8 in February, as millions of migrant workers returned to work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday. 

The BSE Sensex ended at 73085.94, down by 112.16 points or 0.15% after trading in a range of 72784.54 and 73649.72. There were 19 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended mixed; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.25%, while Small cap index down by 0.70%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Capital Goods up by 1.53%, Power up by 1.52%, Consumer Durables up by 1.24%, Realty up by 1.09% and Basic Materials up by 0.99%, while Energy down by 1.11%, Oil & Gas down by 0.50% and Bankex down by 0.28% were the few losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Ultratech Cement up by 2.21%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.76%, NTPC up by 1.64%, Infosys up by 1.26% and Bajaj Finance up by 1.16%. On the flip side, Reliance Industries down by 2.17%, Bajaj Finserv down by 1.84%, HDFC Bank down by 1.52%, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone down by 1.51% and Maruti Suzuki down by 1.37% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, Arvind Panagariya has said that looming threat of reciprocal tariffs from the US could be turned into a positive if India can leverage it to secure mutual tariff reductions. However, he cautioned that if it results in a tariff war, where the US imposes tariffs on India and New Delhi retaliates with its own tariffs, it would have an 'unfortunate' outcome. US President Donald Trump on multiple times said that America will impose reciprocal tariffs against India and alleged that India is a 'tariff king' and 'tariff abuser'. US’ 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium will be in effect from March 12.

While talking about India’s competitive advantage and access to US markets he said that the country has a very good opportunity to do a win-win bargain on reciprocal tariffs, as India’s economic liberalization makes it more competitive and through reciprocal tariff bargain Indian sectors such as textile and clothing can get better access to US markets. However, he warned that if the both sides end up in a kind of tariff war in which the US impose tariffs on India and India retaliates with imposing tariffs on US will not be advantageous for either side.

In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Washington, India and the US announced their commitment to more than double the two-way commerce to $500 billion by 2030 and negotiate the first tranche of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall of 2025. During 2023-24, the US was the largest trading partner of India with $119.71 billion in bilateral trade in good ($77.51 billion worth of exports, $42.19 billion of imports, with $35.31 billion trade surplus). 

The CNX Nifty ended at 22119.30, down by 5.40 points or 0.02% after trading in a range of 22004.70 and 22261.55. There were 32 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Bharat Electronics up by 4.52%, Grasim Industries up by 3.07%, Eicher Motors up by 2.79%, JSW Steel up by 2.67% and BPCL up by 2.15%. On the flip side, Coal India down by 2.44%, Reliance Industries down by 2.40%, Bajaj Auto down by 2.38%, Bajaj Finserv down by 1.80% and HDFC Bank down by 1.78% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading higher; Germany’s DAX gained 260.2 points or 1.15% to 22,811.63, France’s CAC rose 45.54 points or 0.56% to 8,157.17 and UK’s FTSE 100 increased 38.43 points or 0.44% to 8,848.17.

Asian markets ended mixed on Monday as investors awaited clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs this week on key trading partners. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly said that the exact tariff that will be levied against Mexico and Canada starting Tuesday is still ‘fluid’, which means it could be lower than the proposed 25%. He added that the additional 10% duty on China imports is ‘set’. However, some relief came as new PMI data suggested China's manufacturing had a solid start to 2025. China's February manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rebounded to 50.2, up from 49.1 in January. Also, Japan's manufacturing sector showed slight improvement in February, with PMI finalized at 49.0, up from 48.7 in January. Traders took note of reports that China is considering retaliatory measures on U.S. agriculture and food products if the U.S. insists on pursuing its own path on tariffs. Meanwhile, European leaders pledged to assemble a ‘coalition of the willing’ to develop a plan for ending Ukraine's war with Russia. South Korea was closed for Independence Movement Day Alternative Holiday.