July WPI accelerates to 5.79%; May inflation revised lower to 4.58%

14 Aug 2013 Evaluate

In a rude shock, India's main inflation gauge, based on monthly WPI, shot higher to 5.79% (Provisional) for the month of July, way above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) perceived comfort level of 5% and against 4.86% (Provisional) for the previous month of June. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was at 3.12% compared to a build up rate of 2.98% in the corresponding period of the previous year. However, May inflation figures were revised downwards to 4.58% from 4.70% earlier.

Surge in ‘Food Articles’ group by 3.4% to 237.7 (Provisional) from 229.8 (Provisional) for the previous month, which lifted the index of Primary Articles, having weight of 20.12%, by 2.7% to 238.8 (Provisional) from 232.5 (Provisional) on (M-o-M) basis, mainly turned out to be the main culprit behind the acceleration of July inflation number. Food Articles index rose mainly due to higher price of fruits and vegetables (11%), rice (5%), fish-inland (5%) and fish-marine, barley, urad, condiments and spices, mutton, wheat and masur (1% each). Meanwhile, the index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group rose by 0.9% to 210.7 (Provisional) from 208.8 (Provisional) for the previous month.

Additionally, Manufactured products, which carry weight of 64.97% in the index, rose by 0.6% to 150.2 (Provisional) from 149.3 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Food Products' group rose by 0.7% to 168.9 (Provisional) from 167.7 (Provisional) for the previous month.

Further, the index of Fuel & Power, which has weight of 14.91%, rose by 3% to 199.8 (Provisional) from 194.0 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher price of furnace oil, aviation turbine fuel, petrol and bitumen (7% each) and high speed diesel (3%). 

July inflation also prolonged previous sessions’ gaining trend on account of falling currency, which pushed up the price of imports, making raw materials more costly. Thus, with this another set of gloomy data, the central bank's task of containing inflation will likely get more difficult, since raising interest rates will adversely affect an already slowing economy. Earlier, India's annual industrial output growth measured by index of industrial production (IIP), despite several measures taken by the government including imports curb and export sops, contracted for second straight month at 2.2% at 164.3 in June, way below the general expectation of a contraction of 1.3% and 1.6% figure of last month.

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