India’s merchandise trade deficit will be under pressure in fiscal year 2026: Crisil

17 Mar 2025 Evaluate

The rating agency Crisil in its latest report has said that India’s merchandise trade deficit will be under pressure in the fiscal year 2026, as domestic private consumption is expected to remain strong, maintaining imports up. According to the rating agency, India’s exports could also come under pressure due to the slowing economy and tariff related conditions in the United States. However, as per the report, the service trade, which has proven to be more resilient and where India runs a surplus, will provide some cushion.

The report said ‘Slowing global growth (3.0 per cent in calendar 2025 from 3.3 per cent in calendar 2024, as per S&P Global’s November 2024 forecast) - particularly of the US (2.0 per cent vs. 2.7 per cent), our largest export destination - could hit India’s exports’. As per the report, the global trade volume growth is also expected to moderate to 3.2 per cent in calendar 2025 from 3.4 per cent in calendar 2024 according to the United Nations, which could impact the overall trade.

The report highlights that since India imposes higher tariffs and has a trade surplus, it would impact the country. It also highlighted that the risks to global trade have risen due to the ongoing tariff war initiated by the US. It added ‘India is vulnerable to US tariff actions as it runs a trade surplus with the country and taxes imports from there at a higher weighted average tariff rate (9.5 per cent) than Washington’s taxes on imports from India (3 per cent)’.

According to the Crisil Intelligence, India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026 despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions. This forecast for India’s economy depends on two key factors. The rating agency anticipates that normal monsoon and commodity prices will continue to remain soft, which will keep the food prices stable.

© 2025 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×