Sensex, Nifty trade firm in early deals; WPI data eyed

Indian equity benchmarks made a cautious start on Monday despite broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday and a higher opening of Asian counterparts today. Cautiousness came amid tariff-related developments and FII selling. Sensex and Nifty soon added gains and are trading firm in early deals, backed by buying in auto and financial shares. Some support came as a UN report said India and China saw strong trade growth in Q4 2024. Traders took note of report that the Reserve Bank said India said foreign exchange reserves increased by $15.267 billion to $653.966 billion during the week ended March 7. Besides, India and New Zealand have resumed negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) after a decade-long hiatus. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data to be out later in the day.

On the global front, Asian markets are trading mostly higher as traders reacted positively to China unveiling a special action plan over the weekend to revive consumption and to boost the stock and real estate market. Back home, stocks related to paper industry are in focus as the Indian Paper Manufacturers Association said paper and paperboard imports into India jumped by 20 per cent to 1.76 million tonnes in the April-December period of 2024-25. In stock specific development, KEC International traded higher as it secured new orders of Rs 1,127 crore across its various businesses.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 74312.18, up by 483.27 points or 0.65% after trading in a range of 73796.06 and 74376.35. There were 20 stocks advancing against 10 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.85%, while Small cap index was up by 0.58%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Auto up by 1.67%, Healthcare up by 1.36%, Metal up by 1.36%, Basic Materials up by 1.12% and Capital Goods up by 1.11%, while IT down by 0.47%, Realty down by 0.23% and TECK down by 0.22% were the few losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Indusind Bank up by 4.58%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 2.74%, Bajaj Finserv up by 2.61%, Bajaj Finance up by 2.27% and Sun Pharma up by 1.99%. On the flip side, Nestle down by 1.17%, HCL Technologies down by 0.94%, Tech Mahindra down by 0.57%, SBI down by 0.49% and Infosys down by 0.49% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the rating agency Crisil in its latest report has said that India’s merchandise trade deficit will be under pressure in the fiscal year 2026, as domestic private consumption is expected to remain strong, maintaining imports up. According to the rating agency, India’s exports could also come under pressure due to the slowing economy and tariff related conditions in the United States. However, as per the report, the service trade, which has proven to be more resilient and where India runs a surplus, will provide some cushion.

The report said ‘Slowing global growth (3.0 per cent in calendar 2025 from 3.3 per cent in calendar 2024, as per S&P Global’s November 2024 forecast) - particularly of the US (2.0 per cent vs. 2.7 per cent), our largest export destination - could hit India’s exports’. As per the report, the global trade volume growth is also expected to moderate to 3.2 per cent in calendar 2025 from 3.4 per cent in calendar 2024 according to the United Nations, which could impact the overall trade.

The report highlights that since India imposes higher tariffs and has a trade surplus, it would impact the country. It also highlighted that the risks to global trade have risen due to the ongoing tariff war initiated by the US. It added ‘India is vulnerable to US tariff actions as it runs a trade surplus with the country and taxes imports from there at a higher weighted average tariff rate (9.5 per cent) than Washington’s taxes on imports from India (3 per cent)’.

According to the Crisil Intelligence, India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026 despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions. This forecast for India’s economy depends on two key factors. The rating agency anticipates that normal monsoon and commodity prices will continue to remain soft, which will keep the food prices stable.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 22553.20, up by 156.00 points or 0.70% after trading in a range of 22353.15 and 22577.00. There were 39 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Indusind Bank up by 4.53%, Dr. Reddy's Lab up by 3.36%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 3.10%, SBI Life Insurance up by 3.09% and Bajaj Finserv up by 2.69%. On the flip side, Nestle down by 1.07%, HCL Technologies down by 1.02%, BPCL down by 0.85%, Tech Mahindra down by 0.75% and Wipro down by 0.72% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mostly in green; Nikkei 225 surged 481.09 points or 1.3% to 37,534.19, Hang Seng jumped 316.66 points or 1.32% to 24,276.64, Taiwan Weighted rose 239.36 points or 1.09% to 22,207.41, KOSPI advanced 41.83 points or 1.63% to 2,608.19, Straits Times added 31.74 points or 0.83% to 3,867.76 and Shanghai Composite was up by 9.74 points or 0.28% to 3,429.30, while Jakarta Composite was down by 58.95 points or 0.9% to 6,456.68.