Key gauges end higher amid strong global cues

Indian equity benchmarks ended with gains of around half percent on Monday mirroring a sharp rally in global peers along with buying in Healthcare, Basic Materials and Metal stocks. However, gains remained capped as market participants were closely watching key US economic data releases, including retail sales, the Fed’s policy meeting, and its statement later this week.  

Some of the important factors in today’s trade:  

India, China saw stronger trade momentum in Q4 2024: A UN report has said developing nations, particularly India and China, saw better than average trade expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024, but warned of a ‘potential for an economic slowdown’ globally in the upcoming quarters. 

Dollar’s weakness continued to provide support to rupee: The rupee appreciated against the US dollar on positive domestic equities and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market.

FPIs remained net sellers: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers of Indian equities for the 16th straight session on Thursday as they net offloaded stocks worth Rs 792.90 crore. The total outflow by foreign investors has reached Rs 1.42 lakh crore ($16.5 billion) in 2025 so far.

Wholesale Price Inflation rose to 2.38% in February: Wholesale price inflation rose marginally to 2.38 per cent in February due to expensive manufactured food items like vegetables oil and beverages. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.31 per cent in January. It was 0.2 per cent in February 2024. 

Favourable global cues: European markets were trading higher ahead of this week's upcoming parliamentary vote on Germany's debt reform deal and the interest rate meetings of three central banks - Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Asian markets settled mostly higher after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is 'not worried' about the recent market downturn and China announced plans featuring measures to boost wages and stabilize stock and real estate markets. 

Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 341.04 points or 0.46% to 74,169.95, and the CNX Nifty was up by 111.55 points or 0.50% to 22,508.75.  

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 74,376.35 and 73,796.06 respectively. There were 19 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended mixed; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.77%, while Small cap index was down by 0.02%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Healthcare up by 1.12%, Basic Materials up by 0.92%, Metal up by 0.91%, Auto up by 0.80% and Bankex up by 0.71%, while Realty down by 0.35%, FMCG down by 0.21% and Telecom down by 0.03% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Bajaj Finserv up by 3.59%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 2.41%, Axis Bank up by 2.36%, Bajaj Finance up by 1.91% and Adani Ports &SEZ up by 1.63%. On the flip side, ITC down by 0.98%, Nestle down by 0.76%, SBI down by 0.69%, Reliance Industries down by 0.56% and Asian Paints down by 0.50% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the rating agency Crisil in its latest report has said that India’s merchandise trade deficit will be under pressure in the fiscal year 2026, as domestic private consumption is expected to remain strong, maintaining imports up. According to the rating agency, India’s exports could also come under pressure due to the slowing economy and tariff related conditions in the United States. However, as per the report, the service trade, which has proven to be more resilient and where India runs a surplus, will provide some cushion.

The report said ‘Slowing global growth (3.0 per cent in calendar 2025 from 3.3 per cent in calendar 2024, as per S&P Global’s November 2024 forecast) - particularly of the US (2.0 per cent vs. 2.7 per cent), our largest export destination - could hit India’s exports’. As per the report, the global trade volume growth is also expected to moderate to 3.2 per cent in calendar 2025 from 3.4 per cent in calendar 2024 according to the United Nations, which could impact the overall trade.

The report highlights that since India imposes higher tariffs and has a trade surplus, it would impact the country. It also highlighted that the risks to global trade have risen due to the ongoing tariff war initiated by the US. It added ‘India is vulnerable to US tariff actions as it runs a trade surplus with the country and taxes imports from there at a higher weighted average tariff rate (9.5 per cent) than Washington’s taxes on imports from India (3 per cent)’.

According to the Crisil Intelligence, India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026 despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions. This forecast for India’s economy depends on two key factors. The rating agency anticipates that normal monsoon and commodity prices will continue to remain soft, which will keep the food prices stable.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 22,577.00 and 22,353.15. There were 33 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index.  

The top gainers on Nifty were Dr. Reddy's Lab up by 3.93%, SBI Life Insurance up by 3.89%, Bajaj Finserv up by 3.74%, Trent up by 2.54% and Axis Bank up by 2.36%. On the flip side, Wipro down by 1.53%, BPCL down by 1.13%, Hero MotoCorp down by 1.11%, ITC down by 1.03% and Nestle down by 0.96% were the top losers. 

European markets were trading higher; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 21.49 points or 0.25% to 8,653.82, France’s CAC rose 29.63 points or 0.37% to 8,057.91 and Germany’s DAX gained 78.7 points or 0.34% to 23,065.52.

Asian markets settled mostly higher on Monday ahead of the highly anticipated monetary policy announcements by major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Market sentiments improved further after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is not worried about recent market downturns because corrections are healthy and normal. Besides, traders shrugged off data showing US consumer sentiment plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March and long-term inflation expectations hit their highest level in 32 years. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained, boosted by data indicating increased consumption in the world's second-largest economy China. Japanese shares rose sharply by tracking Wall Street’s gains last Friday as the risk of the federal government shutdown eased.