Post Session: Quick Review

Local equity markets extended their winning streak for fourth straight day on Thursday driven by surge in information technology stocks after the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. Indices kicked off the day on a positive note and remained firmly in the green, as traders largely overlooked exchange data showed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 1,096.50 crore on Wednesday.

Some of the important factors in today’s trade:

India's structural strengths lay strong foundation for growth: Some support came as RBI March Bulletin said that sound fiscal policies, a well-calibrated monetary framework, and digital transformation initiatives are expected to provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable economic growth.  

Piyush Goyal proposes free-trade deal with Mercosur: Traders took support as Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal proposed that India and the four-nation bloc Mercosur can explore signing bilateral free-trade agreements. 

RBI sees easing inflation helping India tackle global uncertainty: Sentiments were upbeat with the State of Economy report released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stating that easing inflation may help India counter the headwinds from trade tensions and uncertainty about the global economy.

Global front: European markets were trading in red, ahead of the Bank of England's rate decision due later in the session, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates on hold due to tariff uncertainties and the British government's impending tax hike for employers. Most of the Asian markets ended in green, after China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fifth straight month, as widely expected. 

The BSE Sensex ended at 76348.06, up by 899.01 points or 1.19% after trading in a range of 75684.58 and 76456.25. There were 27 stocks advancing against 3 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.61%, while Small cap index up by 0.73%. (Provisional)

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.94%, TECK up by 1.89%, Oil & Gas up by 1.56%, Energy up by 1.42% and Auto up by 1.39%, while there were no losers on the BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Bharti Airtel up by 4.05%, Titan Company up by 3.47%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.79%, Hindustan Unilever up by 1.78% and TCS up by 1.74%. On the flip side, Indusind Bank down by 1.03%, Bajaj Finance down by 0.57% and Ultratech Cement down by 0.15% were the few losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, Crisil Ratings has said that the Indian FMCG sector is expected to witness a mild revenue rebound of 100 to 200 basis points to 6-8 per cent in fiscal 2026 owed to a gradual recovery in urban and steady rural demand, while in ongoing 2024-25 fiscal the sector is expected to have a modest revenue growth 5-6 per cent as the volume rises 4-6 per cent. It expects another 2 per cent revenue uptick to come from realisations as FMCG companies partly pass on the impact of inflation in key categories such as soaps, biscuits, coffee, hair oil and tea, while the pricing action will be driven by elevated prices of key inputs such as palm oil -- a key input for all three segments - F&B, personal care and home care -- coffee, copra and wheat. Crisil expects credit profiles of FMCG companies to remain stable with operating profitability to stay flat but healthy at 20-21 per cent in fiscal 2026.

Crisil, on the demand growth prospect, expects a modest recovery in volume as moderating food inflation, easing interest rates and tax relief measures announced in the Union Budget for the next fiscal will encourage urban demand, while continuous allocation to welfare schemes and a hike in minimum support prices will nurture demand growth in Rural areas. It has noted that traditional FMCG companies also have had to contend with rising competition, while the regional and local companies have been gaining with consumers downtrading to lower-priced brands. Additionally, the rising preference for digital channels has opened distribution avenues on a much larger scale for direct-to-consumer (D2C) companies.

The rating agency highlighted that the urban markets accounts for about 60 per cent of revenue, while rural market accounts for the rest. It added that nearly half of the sector's revenue comes from the food and beverages category, while the personal care and home care category accounts for a quarter each. It also added that high food inflation, elevated interest rates and sluggish wage growth impacted urban consumption across segments in fiscal 2025, with personal care and certain F&B sections taking a bigger hit. However, rural volume has recovered and outpaced urban in the past few quarters after another spell of adequate monsoon. Crisil also noted that input price, monsoon and utilisation of higher disposable incomes by households are the important factors to be watched for in upcoming times. 

The CNX Nifty is ended at 23190.65, up by 283.05 points or 1.24% after trading in a range of 22973.95 and 23216.70. There were 45 stocks advancing against 5 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Bharti Airtel up by 3.94%, Titan Company up by 3.53%, Eicher Motors up by 2.61%, Bajaj Auto up by 2.60% and Britannia Inds up by 2.57%. On the flip side, Indusind Bank down by 1.12%, Bajaj Finance down by 0.59%, Trent down by 0.30% and Shriram Finance down by 0.16% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading lower; Germany’s DAX lost 255.96 points or 1.1% to 23,032.10, France’s CAC fell 56.59 points or 0.69% to 8,114.88 and UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 1.29 points or 0.01% to 8,705.37.

Asian markets settled mixed on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged as widely expected. While, the Fed signaled the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve lowered its economic outlook for the year, marked up its inflation expectations and said it will start shrinking its balance sheet at a slower pace starting next month amid growing woes around tariffs. Chinese and Hong Kong shares declined as the People's Bank of China kept the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, despite economic concerns. Japanese markets were closed for Vernal Equinox holiday.