Profit taking drags indices lower; Nifty closes below 23,500 mark

Indian equity benchmarks halted their seven-day winning run and settled lower on Wednesday due to profit-taking in Oil & Gas, Realty and Healthcare shares. Markets sentiment remained weak ahead of US President Donald Trump's expected tariff announcement on April 2. The upcoming monthly expiry of derivatives contracts tomorrow has also unnerved market participants.   

Some of the important factors in today’s trade:

Oil prices surge to three-week high: Oil prices edged higher as concerns about tighter global supply grew following the U.S. threat of tariffs on nations buying Venezuelan crude, along with a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories.  

S&P cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY26: S&P Global Ratings has cut India's GDP growth projections for the Fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) to 6.5 per cent as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalization. 

Resurgence of foreign fund inflows: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their buying streak for the third straight session on March 25, purchasing shares worth Rs 5,371.57 crore, according to exchange data.

India’s GDP likely to reach $4.27 trillion by end of 2025: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest data has showed that India’s GDP has doubled in size over last ten years. It said the country’s GDP at current prices was $2.1 trillion in 2015 and is expected to reach $4.27 trillion by the end of 2025, marking a 100 per cent increase in just ten years. 

Global front: European markets were trading lower as worries about the impact of impending U.S. tariffs weigh on sentiment. Asian markets settled mostly higher on Wednesday even as deteriorating U.S. consumer confidence in the face of tariff fears coincided with forecasts suggesting a risk of stagflation and rising odds of recession.  

Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 728.69 points or 0.93% to 77,288.50, and the CNX Nifty was down by 181.80 points or 0.77% to 23,486.85.  

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 78,167.87 and 77,194.22 respectively. There were 5 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index fell 0.67%, while Small cap index was down by 1.45%.

The lone gaining sectoral index on the BSE was Capital Goods up by 0.05%, while Oil & Gas down by 1.52%, Realty down by 1.37%, Healthcare down by 1.36%, PSU down by 1.35% and Utilities down by 1.32% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Indusind Bank up by 2.94%, HCL Technologies up by 0.43%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 0.22%, Power Grid Corporation up by 0.07% and Titan Company up by 0.07%. On the flip side, NTPC down by 3.54%, Eternal down by 3.10%, Tech Mahindra down by 2.85%, Bajaj Finance down by 2.28% and Axis Bank down by 2.14% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest data has showed that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has doubled in size over last ten years. The data highlighted that the country’s GDP at current prices was $2.1 trillion in 2015 and is expected to reach $4.27 trillion by the end of 2025, marking a 100 per cent increase in just ten years. The IMF also highlights that India’s real GDP growth rate for the current year stands at 6.5 per cent, indicating a strong and stable expansion of the economy. Real GDP growth refers to the increase in the value of goods and services produced in the country after adjusting for inflation. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

At the same time, inflation remains a crucial factor influencing economic conditions. The data stated that the inflation in the country is expected to remain at 4.1 per cent. The inflation rate is now in the central bank of the country RBI’s targeted range of 4 to 6 per cent. Inflation remains a key indicator to watch as it affects purchasing power and the cost of living. The IMF data also highlighted that the GDP per capita, which measures the average income of a citizen based on the total economic output, is estimated at $11,940 (or 11.94 thousand international dollars in terms of purchasing power parity). This indicates an improvement in individual prosperity and living standards over the years.

However, the data also points out that India’s general government gross debt is currently 82.6 per cent of GDP. This means that the government’s total borrowings are quite high compared to the country’s economic output. A high debt level could pose challenges in managing fiscal policies, but India has continued to maintain its economic momentum despite this and the government is continuously achieving the fiscal targets. The latest IMF figures highlight India’s strong economic resilience, with a sharp rise in GDP, steady real growth, and improving income levels. However, factors like inflation and high public debt remain key areas to monitor in the coming years.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 23,736.50 and 23,451.70. There were 10 stocks advancing against 40 stocks declining on the index.  

The top gainers on Nifty were Indusind Bank up by 3.34%, Trent up by 2.37%, Hero MotoCorp up by 0.69%, Grasim Industries up by 0.61% and Power Grid Corporation up by 0.45%. On the flip side, NTPC down by 3.52%, Tech Mahindra down by 3.09%, Cipla down by 2.49%, Axis Bank down by 2.19% and Bajaj Finance down by 2.18% were the top losers. 

European markets were trading lower; UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 45.44 points or 0.52% to 8,637.40, France’s CAC fell 84.48 points or 1.03% to 8,113.19 and Germany’s DAX lost 376.13 points or 1.61% to 23,043.35.

Asian markets settled mostly higher on Wednesday tracking Wall Street’s gains overnight, despite a sharp decline in US consumer confidence for the fourth consecutive month and uncertainty over tariffs. Meanwhile, ratings agency Moody's has warned on the US fiscal outlook, saying US President Dinald Trump's policies could make it more difficult to offset rising deficit and debt. Seoul shares gained as technology and auto shares surge amid relief over the US President's recent comments on tariff sanctions. Also, a survey showed that Korea's business sentiment rebounded for the first time in five months in March. Further, Japanese shares rose after Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pledged to take strong measures to curb soaring prices. However, Chinese shares declined marginally after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index tumbled for a sixth consecutive day, marking its longest losing streak in more than a year.