Markets to make cautious start amid weak global market cues

Indian markets, after a long holiday weekend, are likely to make a cautious start on Monday, influenced by weak global market cues. Traders are likely to focus on sectors such as banking and IT with earnings from key players could drive markets. Additionally, the ongoing inflow from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) may further boost markets sentiment. 

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India’s forex reserves jump for sixth consecutive week: RBI said that India's forex reserves increased by $1.567 billion to $677.835 billion for the week ended April 11. This is the sixth consecutive week of a rise in the kitty. The overall reserves jumped by $10.872 billion to $676.268 billion in the previous reporting week ended April 4.

RBI to remain 'agile & proactive' in policy action: Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said that the central bank will continuously monitor the rapidly evolving global situation and remain 'agile and proactive' in its policy actions.

India, US trade agreement talks gain pace: India and US trade negotiations are progressing. Discussions will begin on April 23 in Washington. India aims for an early agreement during the 90-day tariff pause. Both countries have finalized the agreement's terms. They want to double trade to $500 billion by 2030.

India needs to create 8 to 10 million jobs annually: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Principal Secretary PK Mishra emphasized the need for 8-10 million annual job creations in India, urging IIM Sambalpur students to acquire technical knowledge and practical skills.

India's oilmeal exports dip 21% in FY25: Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India's oilmeals exports witnessed a significant decline, dropping 21% to Rs 12,171 crore in the last fiscal year, primarily due to an 11% decrease in sales volumes.

On the global front: The US markets ended mostly in red on Thursday after reporting weaker than expected first quarter earnings and cut its full-year profit forecast. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday amid escalating U.S.-China tensions and warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that trade tensions risk undermining the U.S. central bank's employment and inflation goals.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks surged nearly two per cent on Thursday, registering their fourth day of rally, as investors cheered news of progress in U.S-China trade talks and remained hopeful that both the Reserve Bank of India and the U.S. Federal Reserve will slash interest rates in the coming months.  Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1508.91 points or 1.96% to 78,553.20, and the CNX Nifty was up by 414.45 points or 1.77% to 23,851.65.          

Some of the important factors in trade:

US remains India’s top trading partner for 4th straight year in FY25: The US being export heaven for Indian exporter, the recent government data showed that the US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25 with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion, while the country's trade deficit with China widened to $99.2 billion during the same period.

India to grow 6.5% in 2025: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025, supported by strong public spending and continuing monetary easing. Despite a slowdown from the estimated 6.9% growth in 2024, India is forecast to be the fastest growing economy.

GeM facilitates Rs 5.42 lakh crore transactions in 2024-25: Public procurement platform Government e-Market Place (GeM) has facilitated transactions worth Rs 5.42 lakh crore in 2024-25 due to increasing buying by different ministries and state-owned units, according to the commerce ministry data.