Rupee depreciation no trigger for changing India's stable outlook: Fitch

23 Aug 2013 Evaluate

Amid domestic currency deprecating to a record low of over 64 to a dollar, global rating agency Fitch said that the rupee depreciation would not trigger a change in its ratings and will maintain a 'Stable Outlook' on India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', mainly on the back of the country's sizable forex reserves, fiscal deficit management and structural reforms. However, Indian economy is likely to continue facing pressure on account of fall in rupee value, and the sharp weakening of the currency reflects large or growing current account deficit whose funding has been complicated by a reversal of global portfolio capital, it added.

Fitch said that policy management would be the key factor in determining whether economic and financial stability is maintained in India following the intensified pressure on currencies and asset prices. By adding further, Fitch said that rapid private-sector credit growth, widening fiscal deficits or sustained higher inflation could lead to a broader and more sustained loss of confidence among investors. Fitch’s note further said that India's foreign-exchange reserves have come under pressure, but are still sizable and the country's forex reserves, which have currently fallen to $279 billion, still provide around 5.5 months of import cover. Noting that demand growth in excess of current supply-side capabilities could lead to a further widening in external imbalances, Fitch said that additional supply-side reforms could boost sustainable growth rates and attract greater foreign investment inflows, but likely to take more time to implement in view of approaching elections in first half of 2014.

Referring to the global factors, Fitch said that market anticipation of US Fed tapering of bond purchase appears to have prompted some shift in investor perceptions of the risks. It said that current market volatility could persist for a while in view of continuing uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of an eventual unwinding of global central banks' quantitative easing. Meanwhile, despite India, economic stability pressure has also increased on the other Asian economies, it added.

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