In what could be potential trouble brewing up for the already sagging Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its ‘Annual Report 2012-13’, underscored that although headline inflation had moderated in the first quarter of 2013-14 to an average of 4.7%, it could accelerate due to the rupee's sharp depreciation.
In its report, RBI said, “the pass-through of the depreciation of the rupee exchange rate by about 11% in the four months of 2013-14 is incomplete, and will put upward pressure as it continues to feed through to domestic prices.”
Further, it added that, this Rupee depreciation is likely to offset the positive impact of above-average monsoons on inflation. As of August 13, the monsoon was 10% above normal with 85% of the Met divisions recording more than normal to average rainfall, helping improve the Kharif sowing by 11%. Additionally, central bank anticipated rupee's weakness to increase subsidy payouts for fuel and fertilizer in 2013/14.
However, giving some relief, on growth the report pointed that, “Recovery is possible and can take shape later in 2013-14, but is predicted on better governance, removal of supply constraints and maintenance of stability.” Moreover, the report said that India's current account gap, which widened to a record high of 4.8% of GDP in the fiscal year to March 2013, is likely to ease in the current fiscal year, however may continue to be 'much above' the sustainable level.
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