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IMF lowers India’s growth projection to 6.2% for FY26

23 Apr 2025 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for April has lowered growth projection for India to 6.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), from earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent. The growth of the Indian economy is supported by private consumption, especially in the rural areas but this rate is 0.3 percentage points lower than in the January 2025 WEO estimate, impacted by the trade tensions and global uncertainties.

According to the report, the global growth is projected at 2.8 per cent in 2025, lower by 0.5 percentage points estimated earlier. In 2026, the global economy is estimated to grow at 3 per cent. For advanced economies, the report said that growth under the reference forecast is projected to drop from an estimated 1.8 per cent in 2024 to 1.4 per cent in 2025 and 1.5 per cent in 2026. Growth for 2025 is now projected to be 0.5 percentage point lower relative to that in January 2025 WEO update projections.

The forecasts for 2025 include significant downward revisions for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States and an upward revision for Spain. For the United States, growth is projected to decrease in 2025 to 1.8 per cent, 1 percentage point lower than the rate for 2024 as well as 0.9 percentage point lower than the forecast rate in the January 2025 WEO update.

It said the downward revision is a result of greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and a softer demand outlook, given slower-than-anticipated consumption growth. Tariffs are also expected to weigh on growth in 2026, which is projected at 1.7 per cent amid moderate private consumption. After a marked slowdown in 2024, growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to decline further to 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 4.6 per cent in 2026. Emerging and developing Asia, particularly Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, has been among the most affected by the April tariffs.

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