Crisil Ratings in its latest report has said that imposition of 12 per cent safeguard duty on certain steel products for 200 days will provide relief to the domestic primary steelmakers grappling under the pressure of low-cost imports. It said the domestic steel realisations were at a 5 per cent premium vis-a-vis imports for most parts of the last two fiscals. This premium was on an uptrend in the last quarter of fiscal 2025, due to healthy domestic demand and in anticipation of the safeguard duty, while global prices continued to decline.
According to the report, the redirection of steel exports from surplus countries such as China, South Korea and Japan had led to an increase in low-cost imports into India, hurting domestic steel realisations, which are influenced by the landed cost of imports. It noted that the landed cost of imports, even post-duty, could decline further, if global steel prices weaken amid persistent oversupply and rising trade protectionism. This could limit the ability of the Indian players to take additional hikes. Net-net, while the imposition of safeguard duty will support the import parity, a complete normalization of price dynamics may take longer.
The report further said aside from cheaper import prices, domestic prices may be restricted by an expected increase in domestic supply from new capacities. It said after multiple years of limited additions, the industry added 10 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) capacity last fiscal, and another 10-12 MTPA is planned in fiscal 2026. It added that the players are adding these capacities on the back of healthy domestic demand of 9-10 per cent expected for fiscal 2026, on account of continued infrastructure push and robust demand from the building and construction segments.
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