Auto component manufacturers likely to see up to Rs 4,500 crore revenue hit in FY26: ICRA

29 Apr 2025 Evaluate

The rating agency ICRA has said that the Leading auto component manufacturers could take a revenue hit of up to Rs 4,500 crore in the current fiscal (FY26) due to dip in overseas shipments stemming from the tariff-related impact. The rating agency expects the revenue growth of Indian auto component industry to ease to 6 to 8 per cent in FY26, against 8 to 10 per cent projected earlier, if there is mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline in exports to the US, stemming from the tariff-related impact. Further, it said that the most of the incremental costs would be passed on to the US consumers and US importers, however, it noted that in any buyer-supplier negotiation, the extent of pass-through would depend on the supplier's criticality, share of business, competition, and technological intensity of the components supplied and extent to which the Indian auto component exporters share the cost burden will be contingent on their competitiveness and the price elasticity of the products exported.

Besides, it highlighted that if on average, 30 to 50 per cent of the incremental tariff costs are to be absorbed by the Indian auto component exporters, it estimates an earnings impact of roughly Rs 2,700 to Rs 4,500 crore, which is 3 to 6 per cent of the auto component industry's operating profits and 10 to 15 per cent of the auto component exporters' operating profits. It noted that the Indian auto component industry demand continues to benefit from a diversified mix of end-user segments and geographies, with over 70 per cent of its revenues coming from domestic sales, while, the US constituted only close to 8 per cent of the overall industry revenues in FY2024. Moreover, it noted that export of auto components to the US grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 per cent during FY2020-2024.

The US government had imposed a 25 per cent tariff on imported key automobile parts (engine, transmission, powertrain, and electrical components) vide an order dated March 26, 2025, effective May 3, 2025 and about 65 per cent of India's auto component export basket is estimated to fall under the 25 per cent import tariff category. Prior to this, a 25 per cent tariff was imposed on import of steel and aluminium content in auto parts. Subsequent to the order dated March 26, 2025, a reciprocal tariff of 26 per cent was imposed on exports from India to the US, on which there is a temporary pause for 90 days, but with a 10 per cent ad valorem duty still applicable. Meanwhile, the products that fall under the US-Mexico-Canada Arrangement (USMCA) are exempted at present.

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