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UN revises down India's GDP forecast to 6.3% for 2025

16 May 2025 Evaluate

The United Nations (UN) in its latest report titled 'The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2025' has revised India's economic growth forecast for 2025, down to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending. The 6.3 per cent growth projection for India in 2025 is slightly lower than the 6.6 per cent estimated in the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 published in January this year. 

Further, it stated while looming United States tariffs weigh on merchandise exports, the currently exempt sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, semiconductors, energy, and copper could limit the economic impact, though these exemptions may not be permanent. Moreover, it noted that resilient private consumption and strong public investment, alongside robust services exports, will support economic growth. Meanwhile, it has projected India’s GPD to grow at 6.4% for 2026.

The report highlighted that while the unemployment in India remained largely stable amid steady economic conditions, the persistent gender disparities in employment underscore the need for greater inclusivity in workforce participation. It added that in India, inflation is projected to slow from 4.9 per cent in 2024 to 4.3 per cent in 2025, staying within the central bank's target range.  

On the global front, the UN in its report has said that the global economy is at a precarious juncture, marked by heightened trade tensions and elevated policy uncertainty. The recent surge in tariffs driving the effective US tariff rate up steeply threatens to raise production costs, disrupt global supply chains and amplify financial turbulence. The UN expects the global GDP to grow at just 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points below the January 2025 estimates. Meanwhile, the global economic growth is forecast at 2.5% for 2026.


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