Moody's Ratings in its latest report has said that India is well-positioned to deal with the negative effects of US tariffs and global trade disruptions as domestic growth drivers and low dependence on exports anchor the economy. In a note on India, it said government initiatives to boost private consumption, expand manufacturing capacity and increase infrastructure spending will help offset the weakening outlook for global demand. Easing inflation offers the potential for interest rate cuts to further support the economy, even as the banking sector's liquidity facilitates lending.
The agency said ‘in a scenario of sustained escalation in localised tensions, we do not expect major disruptions to India's economic activity because it has minimal economic relations with Pakistan’. Moreover, it said the parts of India that produce most of its agricultural and industrial output are geographically distant from the conflict zones. However, higher defense spending would potentially weigh on India's fiscal strength and slow its fiscal consolidation. The central government's infrastructure spending supports GDP growth, while personal income tax cuts bolster consumption.
It further said India's limited reliance on the trade of goods and its robust service sector are mitigants to US tariffs. Nonetheless, sectors such as autos, which have some exports to the US, face global trade challenges despite their diversified operations. Moody's had earlier this month lowered its economic growth projections for the 2025 calendar year to 6.3 per cent, from 6.7 per cent, but its growth rate will be the highest among G-20 economies.
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