GDP growth disappoints at 4.4% in Q1 FY14, lowest in four years

31 Aug 2013 Evaluate

Diminishing hopes for a recovery in Asia’s third largest economy, the pace of Indian economic growth for Q1 FY14 slowed down to 4.4 percent on YoY basis, mainly due to the contraction witnessed in the manufacturing and mining & quarrying  sectors. The poor performance of agriculture, electricity, gas & water supply and construction also dragged the first quarter GDP growth numbers to over 4-year low.

Further, depreciating rupee value, which recently hit a record low of 68.85 per dollar, is also considered as one of the major factors for declined economic growth in the reported period. Moreover, prevailing high interest rates scenario and declining investment has played a major part in drying out the consumer sentiments as weak growth seen in private consumption spending, which contributes around 60% to overall GDP. The private final consumption expenditure growth fell to 1.62% in Q1 FY14 as against 4.3% in Q1 FY13 and 3.8% in Q4 FY13. Meanwhile, investment continued to contract, as gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth contracted 1.18% in Q1 FY14 against contraction of 3.43% in previous quarter and 2.23% in Q1 FY13.

All three sectors of the economy - agriculture, manufacturing and services recorded low growth in Q1 FY14 as compared to same period of previous fiscal. Agriculture growth, constituting around 14% in the country’s GDP, slowed down to 2.7% in the reported quarter as against 2.9% reported in the corresponding quarter of previous fiscal, mainly due to the declined production of rice and wheat. However, agriculture growth is expected to be better in the second half of the year owing to good monsoon season. Further, services sector, which has the largest chuck of share of around 60% in Indian GDP, grew by 6.6% in Q1 FY14 as compared to the 7.7% growth recorded in the Q1 FY13. The weakness was mainly contributed by further downturn seen in financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 8.9% in Q1 FY14 as against 10.8% in the same quarter a year-ago.

Industry sector, having around 25% share in the economy, also slowed down to 0.2% in Q1FY14 on YoY basis. The manufacturing growth declined by 1.2% in Q1 FY14 compared with 0.2% growth seen in Q1 FY13, while mining & quarrying sector growth declined by 2.8% in the reported quarter as against 0.1% in the same quarter in previous fiscal. The growth of electricity and construction sectors too slowed down to 3.7% and 2.8% in Q1 FY14 from 6.3% and 10.9% recorded in Q1 FY13.

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