US has $35-40 billion surplus with India when services, arms included: GTRI

27 May 2025 Evaluate

Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that the US, despite reporting a $44.4 billion trade deficit with India, runs a $35-40 billion overall surplus when revenues from education, digital services, financial activities, royalties, and arms trade are factored in. It said for India, this means it has every reason to walk into free trade agreement negotiations with confidence, pushing back hard against inflated deficit claims and demanding fair, balanced terms that reflect the full economic relationship, not just a narrow, cherry-picked slice of the ledger.

In 2024-25, the US has recorded a trade deficit of about $44.4 billion with India, which means Washington has imported far more goods and services from India than it exported. US President Donald Trump has on multiple occasions highlighted this gap, accusing India of unfairly benefiting from trade. Washington is also using the deficit figures to push India to unilaterally lower tariffs and open its market further.

GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said this trade deficit narrative is misleading and incomplete. He stated ‘according to the think tank, the US quietly rakes in $80-85 billion every year from India through education, digital services, financial operations, intellectual property royalties, and arms sales. These massive earnings do not show up in the narrow goods trade statistics. When you factor them in, the US isn't running a deficit with India at all - it's sitting on a $35-40 billion surplus.’ He added that there's no reason for India to hand over sweeping concessions in sectors that have nothing to do with balancing trade, especially when these concessions would only further boost America's already dominant earnings from the Indian market.

In FY25, trade between India and the US reached $186 billion as per the commerce ministry data. India exported $86.5 billion in goods while importing $45.3 billion, creating a goods trade surplus of $41 billion. In services, India exported an estimated $28.7 billion and imported $25.5 billion, adding a $3.2 billion surplus. Altogether, India ran a total trade surplus of about $44.4 billion with the US.

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