Indian bourses continue to trade under pressure

Indian equity benchmarks continued to trade under pressure in morning deals, dragged lower by Banking, Auto, Oil & Gas and Utilities stocks and weak Asian market trends. Investors remained cautious ahead of the release of industrial and manufacturing production data for April on Wednesday and the first quarter GDP numbers, scheduled to be announced later this week. Besides, rising Covid-19 cases in the country and U.S. tariff uncertainty kept investors on edge. Traders overlooked NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani’s statement that India is set to become the fourth largest economy in the world by overtaking Japan by the end of 2025. He said ‘India is in the process of becoming the fourth largest economy, and I am personally confident that will happen by the end of 2025 because we need (data) of all 12 months GDP to say that, you know, to assert that. So to say till then, it remains a forecast’. On the global front, Asian markets are trading mostly in red as investors awaited fresh trade news that may define the appetite for US assets.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 81347.47, down by 828.98 points or 1.01% after trading in a range of 81261.96 and 82091.54. There was 1 stock advancing against 29 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index fell 0.27%, while Small cap index was up by 0.02%.

The lone gaining sectoral index on the BSE was Industrials up by 0.18%, while Bankex down by 0.91%, Auto down by 0.88%, Oil & Gas down by 0.88%, Utilities down by 0.87% and Energy down by 0.84% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The lone gainer on the Sensex was Bharat Electronics up by 0.68%. On the flip side, Ultratech Cement down by 2.25%, NTPC down by 1.41%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.40%, Tata Motors down by 1.28% and ICICI Bank down by 1.25% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that the US, despite reporting a $44.4 billion trade deficit with India, runs a $35-40 billion overall surplus when revenues from education, digital services, financial activities, royalties, and arms trade are factored in. It said for India, this means it has every reason to walk into free trade agreement negotiations with confidence, pushing back hard against inflated deficit claims and demanding fair, balanced terms that reflect the full economic relationship, not just a narrow, cherry-picked slice of the ledger.

In 2024-25, the US has recorded a trade deficit of about $44.4 billion with India, which means Washington has imported far more goods and services from India than it exported. US President Donald Trump has on multiple occasions highlighted this gap, accusing India of unfairly benefiting from trade. Washington is also using the deficit figures to push India to unilaterally lower tariffs and open its market further.

GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said this trade deficit narrative is misleading and incomplete. He stated ‘according to the think tank, the US quietly rakes in $80-85 billion every year from India through education, digital services, financial operations, intellectual property royalties, and arms sales. These massive earnings do not show up in the narrow goods trade statistics. When you factor them in, the US isn't running a deficit with India at all - it's sitting on a $35-40 billion surplus.’ He added that there's no reason for India to hand over sweeping concessions in sectors that have nothing to do with balancing trade, especially when these concessions would only further boost America's already dominant earnings from the Indian market.

In FY25, trade between India and the US reached $186 billion as per the commerce ministry data. India exported $86.5 billion in goods while importing $45.3 billion, creating a goods trade surplus of $41 billion. In services, India exported an estimated $28.7 billion and imported $25.5 billion, adding a $3.2 billion surplus. Altogether, India ran a total trade surplus of about $44.4 billion with the US.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 24764.45, down by 236.70 points or 0.95% after trading in a range of 24737.70 and 24976.10. There were 5 stocks advancing against 45 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Bharat Electronics up by 0.72%, Indusind Bank up by 0.67%, Dr. Reddy's Lab up by 0.33%, SBI Life Insurance up by 0.16% and Hindalco up by 0.08%. On the flip side, Ultratech Cement down by 2.29%, Grasim Industries down by 1.82%, NTPC down by 1.50%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.39% and ICICI Bank down by 1.32% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 slipped 54.28 points or 0.14% to 37,477.25, Taiwan Weighted lost 202.74 points or 0.94% to 21,333.83, Hang Seng declined 41.1 points or 0.18% to 23,241.23, KOSPI dropped 17.60 points or 0.67% to 2,626.80, Jakarta Composite plunged 3.02 points or 0.04% to 7,185.33 and Shanghai Composite weakened 11.08 points or 0.33% to 3,335.76.

On the flip side, Straits Times rose 5.19 points or 0.13% to 3,880.79.