HSBC slashes India’s FY14 GDP growth forecast to 4% against 5.5% earlier

03 Sep 2013 Evaluate

Global financial services major HSBC has slashed India's GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 4% from 5.5% earlier, citing chances of economic uncertainty weighing on the growth forecast in the coming months. According to the global financial services major, tighter financial conditions and higher macroeconomic uncertainty, could lead to slow growth in the near future.

Going by the official figures, the country’s economic growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal slid to dismal 4.4%, the lowest in past several years, pulled down by drop in mining and manufacturing output. HSBC, however, believes the slowdown to prolong, with leading indicators suggesting that the country’s growth momentum could ease further during the July-September quarter in both manufacturing and services sector.

Further, HSBC in its reports, has highlighted that factors like RBI’s currency stabilization measures and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty is making consumers and businesses more cautious about spending.  It has anticipated pressure on growth momentum likely to pose a greater challenge for the policy makers, which are struggling to stabilize the falling Indian currency, which keeps scaling fresh historic low levels.

However, the financial services major expects growth to show 'faint' signs of recovery during the final quarter of the fiscal year as macroeconomic uncertainties recede somewhat and confidence reluctantly recovers. Nevertheless as per HSBC, 'the outlook for India is still tainted with downside risks given the lingering macroeconomic uncertainties and the possibility that politics could get in the way of meaningful progress on structural reform'.

Adding to the headache of policymakers and government, HSBC is not the only foreign agency, which has slashes growth forecast for Indian economy. CLSA, Nomura too have downgraded their gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for India after the economy grew lower-than-expected in the June quarter.

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