Benchmarks continue choppy trade

Key gauges continued their choppy trade in negative terrain, dragged by FMCG and Metal stocks. The stocks continue to lack direction as traders remained cautious ahead of the release of industrial and manufacturing production data for April and seek more clarity on the progress of India-US trade agreements. However, losses remained capped as market took support of Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) comments suggesting that the country's overall goods and services exports are likely to reach $1 trillion during 2025-26. Besides, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast indicated above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for 2025 has also lend some support by providing a favourable outlook for the Kharif cropping season. 

On the global front, Asian equity markets were trading mixed despite a strong rally on Wall Street overnight driven by improved U.S. consumer confidence data and a global bond surge. European equity markets were trading higher after French GDP figures showed slight growth in the first quarter, matching expectations and reports of German government ramping up public investment to 110 billion euros ($125 billion) this year to revive a sluggish economy.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 81399.78, down by 151.85 points or 0.19% after trading in a range of 81244.02 and 81613.36. There were 13 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index declined 0.04%, while Small cap index was up by 0.54%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.69%, Industrials up by 0.60%, Capital Goods up by 0.50%, TECK up by 0.38% and PSU up by 0.36%, while FMCG down by 1.10%, Metal down by 0.63%, Consumer Durables down by 0.53%, Auto down by 0.52% and Basic Materials down by 0.36% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Bharat Electronics up by 1.10%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.04%, Bajaj Finance up by 0.99%, Adani Ports up by 0.55% and Tata Motors up by 0.50%. On the flip side, ITC down by 2.92%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 1.13%, Asian Paints down by 1.07%, Ultratech Cement down by 1.02% and Power Grid Corporation down by 0.93% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has issued its updated Long-Range Forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon season (June-September) along with the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for June 2025. According to the forecast, the seasonal rainfall across the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±4%, indicating a high probability of above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. 

According to IMD, regionally, the rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and the South Peninsular region, while Northwest India is expected to experience normal rainfall levels (ranging between 92-108% of LPA). In contrast, Northeast India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA). The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which covers much of India's rainfed agricultural land, is also forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, providing a favorable outlook for the Kharif cropping season. From June to September 2025, most regions of the country are expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall, except for parts of Northwest and East India, as well as many areas in Northeast India, which are likely to witness below-normal rainfall.

IMD said specifically for June 2025, the countrywide rainfall is projected to be above normal (>108% of LPA). While most areas are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, certain southern parts of the Peninsular region, and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, are expected to have below-normal rainfall. On the temperature front, normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely across much of India in June 2025, with above-normal maximum temperatures forecast for many areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Furthermore, minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most of the country, except in some regions of Central India and the adjoining southern Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 24783.15, down by 43.05 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 24737.05 and 24864.25. There were 16 stocks advancing against 34 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were HDFC Life Insurance up by 1.83%, Bharat Electronics up by 1.10%, Bajaj Finance up by 1.09%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.01% and Adani Ports up by 0.58%. On the flip side, ITC down by 2.88%, Indusind Bank down by 1.99%, Nestle down by 1.64%, Bajaj Auto down by 1.41% and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise down by 1.36% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mixed; KOSPI increased 32.93 points or 1.23% to 2,670.15, Taiwan Weighted added 21.18 points or 0.1% to 21,357.72, KOSPI increased 32.93 points or 1.23% to 2,670.15 and Straits Times rose 15.57 points or 0.4% to 3,911.66, while Hang Seng declined 123.68 points or 0.53% to 23,258.31, Shanghai Composite weakened 0.76 points or 0.02% to 3,339.93, Jakarta Composite plunged 29.63 points or 0.41% to 7,169.34 and Nikkei 225 slipped 1.71 points or 0% to 37,722.40.

European markets were trading higher; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 20.87 points or 0.24% to 8,798.92, France’s CAC rose 13 points or 0.17% to 7,839.79 and Germany’s DAX gained 27.38 points or 0.11% to 24,253.87.