OECD projects India’s economic growth at 6.3% in FY2025-26, 6.4% in FY2026-27

04 Jun 2025 Evaluate

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its latest 'Economic Outlook' has projected India’s economic growth at 6.3% in FY2025-26 and 6.4% in FY2026-27. As per the report, India projected to continue to experience strong and broadly stable economic growth. Besides, inflation is projected to remain largely benign.

It said private consumption will gradually strengthen, driven by rising real incomes that are helped by moderate inflation, recent tax cuts and a strengthening of the labour market. Investment will be supported by declining interest rates and substantial public capital spending, but higher US tariffs will weigh on exports. Inflation will remain contained at around 4% as economic activity grows around trend. 

With inflation firmly within the target range, it said monetary policy is gradually expected to become more accommodative. Better targeting of energy and fertiliser subsidies, and an overhaul of tax expenditures, could enhance spending efficiency and free resources for other policy priorities. It highlighted that policy rate reductions are expected to cease by end-2025.

It further warned that the risk of increased trade tensions, including the imposition of higher US tariffs on Indian exports, could dampen external demand and harm export-oriented sectors such as textiles, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Trade tensions may also discourage private investment in tradable sectors.


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