Indian enterprises well positioned to handle impact of tariffs, geopolitical tensions: Moody's, ICRA

05 Jun 2025 Evaluate

Moody's Investors Service and its local arm ICRA Ratings have said that Indian enterprises are well positioned to handle the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. However, they said India Inc will be ‘measured’ in making investment decisions in the new fiscal because of the external headwinds. Moody's said ‘Indian non-financial companies are not directly affected by US import tariffs due to their focus on domestic consumption and low dependence on exports’. It further noted that government initiatives to boost private consumption, expand manufacturing capacity and increase infrastructure spending will help offset the weakening outlook for global demand. 

Moody's Ratings managing director Vikash Halan said India's manufacturing growth will be constrained by challenges such as inadequacy of skilled labour, evolving logistics infrastructure and complex land and labour laws. It said select auto parts categories, cut and polished diamonds, and seafood exports have notable exposure to the US market and may face headwinds from demand moderation or rising competition, and added that the textiles sector is expected to benefit from its comparative advantage over China. It noted geopolitical tensions, particularly the India-Pakistan conflict, may weigh on near-term demand for travel and hospitality services. Nonetheless, India's overall exposure to these risks remains moderate.

ICRA's chief rating officer K Ravichandran said after being muted in FY25, urban consumption is expected to recover in FY26 supported by income tax relief, further rate cuts, and easing food inflation, and the same will benefit automobiles, consumer goods, and services sectors. Meanwhile, on the infrastructure creation front, ICRA forecasted a slowdown in road construction activity in the near-term, whereas other segments like ports and data centres will continue to witness significant investments, benefiting from solid government support, healthy capital outlays and a large pipeline of projects. 

The rating agencies said the country needs massive investments to meet its 2070 net-zero pledge, explaining that the country is grappling with the trilemma of energy security, affordability and transition. It said over the next decade, these investments are projected to constitute 2 per cent of real GDP for the electricity value chain, encompassing power generation, storage, transmission and distribution.

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