World Bank retains India's economic growth projection at lower level of 6.3% for 2025-26

11 Jun 2025 Evaluate

World Bank has retained its India's economic growth projection at a lower level of 6.3 per cent for 2025-26 due to pressure on exports emanating from global uncertainties, though the country will remain the fastest growing major global economy. In April, the World Bank had lowered India's growth projection for 2025-26 to 6.3 per cent from its January forecast of 6.7 per cent. According to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to drive global growth down this year to its slowest pace since 2008 outside of outright global recessions.

It noted that the global growth has been projected to slow to 2.3 per cent in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the rate that had been expected at the start of the year. The turmoil has resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70 per cent of all economies - across all regions and income groups. After unexpectedly weak growth of 6 per cent in 2024, activity in South Asia (SAR) is decelerating amid rising global trade barriers, heightened policy uncertainty, and financial market volatility.

Regarding India, the report said the growth moderated in FY2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025), partly reflecting a deceleration in industrial output growth. However, growth in construction and services activity remained steady, and agricultural output recovered from severe drought conditions, supported by resilient demand in rural areas. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in FY2025-26 has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage point relative to January projections, with exports dampened by weaker activity in key trading partners and rising global trade barriers.

World Bank expects China to grow at 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 4 per cent next year. The report said a global recession is not expected. Nevertheless, if forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s. It also said global growth could rebound faster than expected if major economies are able to mitigate trade tensions - which would reduce overall policy uncertainty and financial volatility.

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