CRISIL Ratings in its latest report has said that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East so far did not have any significant impact on global trade of Indian corporates. However, it added if the uncertainties aggravate, some sectors might feel the impact. The uncertainties have impacted global crude markets, with the Brent crude hovering in the range of $73 to $76 per barrel over the past one week. During April and May, the Brent crude was hovering around $65 per barrel.
According to the report, any escalation of the tensions could result in further spike in oil prices, and added that this will benefit upstream oil companies and margins for the downstream refiners will get squeezed. It said India’s direct trade with Israel and Iran, the two countries engaged in the conflict, is minuscule at less than one per cent of total trade.
It highlighted that India’s major export to Iran is basmati rice, trade with Israel is more diversified. It further said any escalation of the uncertainties in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt energy supply chains. It noted some of the other sectors which might feel the impact are speciality chemicals, paint, aviation and the tyre sectors.
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