Benchmarks likely to make cautious start amid weak global cues

Indian equity markets are likely to make cautious start on Monday, tracking weak global cues as investors closely monitor developments regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Market participants will also focus on the upcoming earnings results for the April-June quarter (Q1FY26). Additionally, there may be some volatility due to ongoing foreign institutional investor (FII) fund outflows.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India's forex reserves rise $4.84 billion to $702.78 billion: Reserve Bank of India said that India's forex reserves were up by $4.84 billion to $702.78 billion for the week ended June 27.

Active negotiations on with over dozen countries for finalising BIT: As per reports, India is actively negotiating bilateral investment treaties (BITs) with over a dozen countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel, Oman, European Union, Switzerland, Russia, and Australia.

PM Modi meets Cuban President to discuss ties in pharma, UPI on sidelines of BRICS: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez have discussed ways to bolster bilateral ties across key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, traditional medicine and digital public infrastructure during a meeting on the sidelines of the 17th BRICS Summit.

India's rights in WTO to retaliate on US auto tariffs won't affect trade deal talks: As per reports, India's decision to reserve its rights to impose retaliatory duties on the US over imposition of tariffs on auto parts is a procedural move under the WTO agreement on safeguards and it will not affect ongoing negotiations on the proposed trade pact between the two countries.

India needs 10% nominal GDP growth annually to achieve Viksit Bharat goal: CII President Rajiv Memani said that India needs an average nominal GDP growth rate of 10 per cent annually to achieve the government's vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047.

On the global front: The U.S. markets remained closed on Friday, July 4, 2025, in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday, as the deadline for imposing U.S. tariffs has been pushed back, creating uncertainty in the market. 

Back home, after oscillating between gains and losses, Indian equity benchmarks managed to end higher on Friday amid buying in Oil & Gas, Energy and Realty stocks. With all eyes on the impending US-India trade deal as the tariff deadline approaches, market participants were hopeful for a favorable outcome. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 193.42 points or 0.23% to 83,432.89 and the CNX Nifty was up by 55.70 points or 0.22% to 25,461.00.

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India likely to be subject to lower US tariffs compared to APAC nations: Moody's Ratings in its outlook on Asia Pacific sovereigns has said that India may be subject to lower tariffs than many countries in the Asia Pacific (APAC), which could help the economy attract further investment and become a global manufacturing base.

CII expects GDP to grow 6.4%-6.7% in FY26: The newly appointed Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Rajiv Memani said that India's economy is expected to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks.

Urgent steps needed to tackle reliance on Chinese imports: The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has raised concerns over China's export curbs on critical minerals which are crucial for India's electronics sectors and emphasize the need for urgent measures like reverse-engineering of low- to mid-tech imports to cut overreliance on Beijing.