Crisil cuts India's economic growth target to 4.8 percent

12 Sep 2013 Evaluate

In slew of another downgrade for the Indian economy, Credit ratings agency Crisil has cut India's economic growth estimate to 4.8 percent for the current fiscal 2013-14 from its earlier estimate of 5.5 percent. It has said that agriculture is the only hope for higher rate of expansion and if agriculture surges 6%, it could push overall GDP growth to 5.2%.

In its first 'State of the Nation' report, the rating agency has said that Agriculture is set to surprise on the upside because of a bountiful and well-distributed monsoon. Farm GDP growth could more than double from last year's 1.9% to 4.5%. This will help check food prices and support rural consumption.

The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 percent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 percent this fiscal. It further stated that the rupee could rebound to Rs 60/USD by March 2014, as the current account deficit declines to 3.9%, but the currency will remain significantly depreciated compared with last fiscal and export-linked sectors such as IT-ITES, pharmaceuticals, textiles, readymade garments and cotton-yarn spinning will do well because of that.

In its report it has also highlighted that of the 2,481 companies analysed, nearly a quarter of the companies were stressed with the demand slowdown and two out of three sectors will see a decline in revenue growth. Furthermore, Services the major growth driver, will grow at just 6.5% this fiscal compared with the nearly 10% through the last decade.

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