Indian exports to US to become more competitive after higher tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico

15 Jul 2025 Evaluate

NITI Aayog in its third edition of ‘Trade Watch Quarterly’ has said that Indian exports to the US will become more competitive following imposition of higher tariffs by the Trump administration on countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico. It added that there will be significant opportunities for India in the US markets both in terms of the number of products and volume of the US market. It noted that India is expected to gain competitiveness in 22 out of the top 30 categories (HS 2 level), representing a market size of $2,285.2 billion. It further explained that China, Canada, and Mexico are the leading exporters to the US in these categories, therefore higher tariffs on these countries at 30 per cent, 35 per cent, and 25 per cent, respectively, will enhance India’s competitiveness.

It said India’s competitiveness will remain unchanged in 6 out of 30 categories, amounting for 32.8 per cent exports to the US and 26 per cent of the US total imports, amounting to $26.5 billion. While for six product categories at HS 2 level, India faces a higher average tariff (between 1-3 per cent) which can be negotiated with the US, the Aayog said ‘In 78 products, accounting for 52 per cent of India’s exports and 26 per cent share in total US imports, India is expected to gain competitiveness’. For 17 products (accounting for 28 per cent of India’s export to the US) out of the top 100 products at the HS-4 level, it said India’s competitiveness remains unchanged due to no change in tariff differential. It also pointed out that ‘India stands to gain in sectors with high tariff gaps vs China, Canada and Mexico - minerals and fuels, apparel, electronics, plastics, furniture, and seafoods in a $1,265-billion market’. 

Meanwhile, an Indian commerce ministry team has reached Washington for another round of talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA). The four-day talks will end on Thursday. India is seeking the removal of this additional tariff (26 per cent). It is also seeking the easing of tariffs on steel and aluminium (50 per cent) and the auto (25 per cent) sectors. Against these, India has reserved its right under the WTO (World Trade Organization) norms to impose retaliatory duties. India’s merchandise exports to the US rose 21.78 per cent to $17.25 billion in April-May this fiscal year, while imports rose 25.8 per cent to $8.87 billion.

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