India economy likely to grow at 6.5% in FY26 despite geo-political tensions: EAC-PM Chairman

16 Jul 2025 Evaluate

Expressing an optimism over India’s economic growth prospects, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman S Mahendra Dev has said that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year (FY26), despite geo-political tensions and trade policy uncertainties. He further said that domestic growth will be driven by low inflation, resulting from good monsoon and benign interest rate regime, triggered by three back-to-back rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. He noted that there are significant global headwinds like the twin shocks of geo-political tensions and trade policy uncertainties. But the Indian economy is resilient and continues to be the fastest growing country among large economies.

According to Dev, high-frequency indicators for the first two months of 2025-26 indicate resilient performance of the domestic economy. He said a 6.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for FY26 is feasible despite global uncertainties. India's medium-term growth prospects seem to be robust with sound fiscal management. He also emphasised that rising government capital expenditure will have positive impact on growth with a healthy expansion in private consumption. 

Regarding surge in net outward foreign direct investment (FDI), he pointed out that the World Investment report 2025 shows that global FDI inflows grew a marginal 3.7 per cent in gross FDI to $1,509 billion in 2024. He said this is much lower than the global FDI inflows that had peaked nine years ago at $2,219 billion in 2015. In other words, he said global FDI itself is growing slowly. Noting that India's FDI inflows have increased 14 per cent in FY25 -- although there was a moderation in net FDI -- he said it is known that there was net outward FDI and a rise in repatriation.

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