PMEAC lowers growth projection for 2013-14 to 5.3%

13 Sep 2013 Evaluate

Finally coming in line with projections of the central bank and many private agencies, who expect Asia's third-largest economy to grow at around 5%, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) too has sharply lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3% from 6.4% projected earlier. However, what came as a concern was the PMEAC chairman Rangarajan, highlighting that containing the fiscal deficit within the budgeted target of 4.8% of GDP could be a ‘challenge’ for the government.

Further, C. Rangarajan expects inflation to likely end at 5.5% in 2013-14 against 7.4% in 2012-13 and hoped that the current account deficit be lower than $70 billion as projected earlier, which turns out to be at 3.8% of GDP in 2013-14 from 4.8% a year ago.

Regarding rupee, he underscored that the Rupee at the current level was well corrected and said that “Stability is returning to the foreign exchange market and as capital flows return and as CAD begins to fall, this tendency will strengthen”. However, he added the current stance of monetary policy should continue until stability in rupee is achieved.

Meanwhile, in order to promote growth, Rangarajan suggested that the government should liberalise FDI investment norms, resolve tax concerns of the industry, fast track public sector investment and initiate measures to contain fiscal deficit.

Nevertheless, C Rangarajan expects the situation in 2013-14 to be better than 2012-13 due to number of reasons, including good growth in agriculture, full impact of structural reforms in the second half, strong emphasis on key infrastructure sector, removal of hurdles in projects clearance by the Cabinet Committee on Investment and signs of improvement in export sector.

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