ADB lowers India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5% amid trade uncertainty, higher US tariffs

23 Jul 2025 Evaluate

Amid trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its July 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO) has lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent. It noted that trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs are likely to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 ADO, India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.

It said ‘This revision is primarily due to the impact of US baseline tariffs and associated policy uncertainty. In addition to the effects of lower global growth and the direct impact of additional US tariffs on Indian exports, heightened policy uncertainty may affect investment flows’. It said despite this, economic activity remains robust, with domestic consumption set to grow strongly on the back of revival of rural demand. It added services and agriculture sectors are expected to be key drivers of growth, the latter supported by a forecast of above-normal monsoon rains.

According to ADO, the central government's fiscal position remains strong, with higher-than-expected dividends from the Reserve Bank of India, and it is on track to meet the targeted reduction in its fiscal deficit. It said in FY27, growth is projected to improve to 6.7 per cent on account of rising investments, under the assumption of reduced policy uncertainty and favourable financial conditions, backed by recent reductions in the repo rate and the cash reserve ratio by the monetary authorities. It noted that the baseline expectations of lower crude oil prices will also support economic activity in FY26 and FY27.


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