The rating agency CareEdge in a pre-monetary policy review meeting has said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already frontloaded the rate cuts, anticipating the moderation in inflation, and it is unlikely the central bank would go for further rate cuts unless economic growth concerns aggravate.
It said while the US reciprocal tariff rate (25 per cent for India) and proposed penalty are concerning, the RBI may opt to wait till ‘we get further clarity on this front’. The next bi-monthly RBI monetary policy review meeting is scheduled for August 4-6, 2025.
The upcoming monetary policy meeting in August takes place against the backdrop of a notable moderation in headline inflation in recent months, largely driven by easing food prices. Inflation is projected to average below the 4 per cent target over the next two quarters, supported by a favourable base and muted food inflation.
CareEdge noted the global trade policy uncertainty will continue to cast a shadow on India's growth outlook; however, the overall impact is likely to be limited given India's limited merchandise trade exposure to the US economy.
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