Fitch Ratings scales down India's growth forecast to 4.8% for FY'14

23 Sep 2013 Evaluate

In a reflection of the difficult times ahead for the economy, Fitch Ratings has cut its growth forecast for India in 2013-14 to 4.8%, from its earlier estimate of 5.7% made in June and 7% in September. Further, the agency also slashed India's growth rate projection for FY’ 15 to 5.8% from the June’s forecast of 6.5%, against its projection of 7.5% in September, 2012.

Highlighting weak demand as a “large drag” on the country’s economy, the global rating agency in its ‘Global economic outlook’ release, by slashing forecast underlined the “severity of the growth shock.” Further, Fitch in its 'Global Economic Outlook' report underscored that the prospects for a swift turnaround in the economy have been further marred by the sharp 20% depreciation in the exchange rate since the end of May, due to increased financial market concerns over India’s large current account deficit.

According to the agency, weaker exchange rate has not only weakened consumer and business confidence but has also complicated matters for India's policymakers and has hindered country’s ability to provide either fiscal or monetary stimulus to support growth. Additionally, it has stated that weaker exchange rate, coupled with high international crude oil prices, would raise the cost of the government's fuel subsidy programme and is likely force the government to cut other budget expenditure if it, to meet its FY'14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP. The agency added that rising imported inflation pressure coupled with continued pressure on the exchange rate would further limit the Reserve Bank of India's ability to cut policy rates.

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