High tariffs imposed by US on Indian goods pose major risk to country's growth: Crisil Intelligence

29 Sep 2025 Evaluate

Crisil Intelligence in its September report has said that high tariffs imposed by the United States (US) on Indian goods pose a major risk to the country's growth. It added that the tariffs will impact both Indian goods exports and investments. However, it noted that domestic consumption, driven by benign inflation and rate cuts, is expected to support growth.

The country's GDP rose to a five-quarter high of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of fiscal 2025-26, up from 7.4 per cent in the similar quarter in the previous year. Nominal GDP growth, however, slowed to 8.8 per cent from 10.8 per cent during the same period. The report said consumer price index (CPI) inflation is likely to soften to 3.5 per cent in the current fiscal from 4.6 per cent in the previous year. Healthy agricultural growth is expected to keep food inflation under check, though the impact of excess rain was yet to be fully assessed.

As per the report, lower crude prices and benign global commodity prices are expected to contain non-food inflation. On the monetary policy, it said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to implement one more rate cut this fiscal, followed by a pause. The central bank's monetary policy committee had cut the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025 and is now awaiting the full transmission of past cuts.

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