RBI keeps policy rate unchanged at 5.50% for second consecutive time

01 Oct 2025 Evaluate

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) under the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy of the current fiscal (FY26) kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 5.25 per cent while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remains at 5.75 per cent. The MPC also decided to continue with the neutral stance.

CPI headline inflation declined to its eight-year low of 1.6 per cent (y-o-y) in July 2025 before rising to 2.1 per cent in August - its first increase after nine months. Benign inflation conditions during 2025-26 so far have been primarily driven by a sharp decline in food inflation from its peak of October 2024. Inflation within the fuel group moved in a narrow range of 2.4-2.7 per cent during June-August. Core inflation remained largely contained at 4.2 per cent in August. Excluding precious metals, core inflation was at 3.0 per cent in August. In terms of the inflation outlook for H2: 2025-26, healthy progress of the southwest monsoon, higher kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stock of foodgrains should keep food prices benign. The recently implemented GST rate rationalisation would lead to a reduction in prices of several items in the CPI basket. Overall, the inflation outcome is likely to be softer than what was projected in the August MPC resolution, primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices. CPI inflation for 2025-26 is now projected at 2.6 per cent with Q2 at 1.8 per cent; Q3 at 1.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.0 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1:2026-27 is projected at 4.5 per cent.

On the economy front, in India, real gross domestic product (GDP), driven by strong private consumption and fixed investment, recorded a robust growth of 7.8 per cent in Q1:2025-26. On the supply side, growth in gross value added (GVA) at 7.6 per cent was led by a revival in manufacturing and steady expansion in services. Available high frequency indicators suggest that economic activity continues to remain resilient. Rural demand remains strong, riding on a good monsoon and robust agriculture activity, while urban demand is showing a gradual revival. Real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.8 per cent, with Q2 at 7.0 per cent, Q3 at 6.4 per cent, and Q4 at 6.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1:2026-27 is projected at 6.4 per cent.

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