Inflation likely to be much lower than RBI projections in FY26 and FY27: SBI Report

03 Oct 2025 Evaluate

The State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest report has said that Inflation in the current financial year (FY26) and the next financial year (FY27) is likely to be much lower than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projections. The report highlighted that several domestic factors are working in favour of easing price pressures. These include healthy progress of the monsoon, higher kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels, comfortable buffer stock of foodgrains, and the most significant factor, GST rate rationalization.

Taking these into account, the RBI recently revised downwards its FY26 CPI inflation projection by 50 basis points to 2.6 per cent, which marks a steep 160 basis point cut from the levels projected in April. For FY27, inflation numbers have been projected at 4.5 per cent. Alongside inflation, the regulator has also revised upwards its estimate for real GDP growth for FY26 to 6.8 per cent. 

The report further observed that in the face of global economic uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) unanimous decision to hold the policy rate unchanged seems logical from a regulatory perspective. It added that monetary policy communication is crucial in guiding expectations, shaping perceptions of the reaction function, and maintaining clarity in forward guidance.

The report mentioned that RBI appears to have left the door open for future rate cuts, given the low inflation forecasts and the recent downward adjustments in growth estimates. However, the exact timing of such a move remains uncertain. The report also noted that the MPC's status quo decision reflects a rare form of dynamism that extends beyond monetary policy.


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