Falling inflation creates space for rate cut but global uncertainties warrant status quo: RBI Governor

03 Oct 2025 Evaluate

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said that falling inflation has created space for rate cut but looming uncertainties and lack of full transmission of the past monetary measures prompted the central bank to opt for status quo in the bimonthly policy. He elaborated that in June, he had used the phrase ‘limited space’ for cuts whereas the statement on October 1 dropped the word ‘limited’ to say that there exists space for a reduction. He said lack of full transmission of the previous reductions of over 100 basis points, uncertainties on the global front and the unfolding impact of the GST rationalization led the rate setting panel to opt for a status quo. 

On the growth front, the Governor said the Q1 number has positively surprised but there are headwinds in the second half of the fiscal and this is the reason for the marginal dip in the real GDP growth estimate for Q3 and Q4. He said challenges on the growth front will come primarily because of the US tariffs, and added that the RBI's upward revision in real GDP growth estimate to 6.8 per cent for FY26 assumes a 50 per cent impact on Indian goods. He enlisted gems and jewellery, shrimps, textile, pharmaceuticals and footwear as the sectors which will have maximum impact of the decision. 

However, he said India is a domestic demand driven economy and the overall impact of the tariffs will be limited. He also hoped that the government will undertake all efforts to counter the headwinds, and added that negotiations with the US are still on. He said apart from the US trade negotiations, parleys are also underway to have bilateral pacts with other countries which will help India. He expects growth to be resilient and hopes to maintain the trajectory on growth while maintaining price stability, which is RBI's core objective. 


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