World Bank raises India’s growth forecast to 6.5% for FY26

07 Oct 2025 Evaluate

The World Bank in its South Asia Development Update has raised India’s growth forecast to 6.5 percent for FY26 from its earlier projection of 6.3 percent in June. However, considering the US’ tariff action, it has cut the forecast for the next fiscal (FY27) by 20 basis points to 6.3 per cent.

According to the report, India is expected to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by continued strength in consumption growth. Domestic conditions, particularly agricultural output and rural wage growth, have been better than expected. The government’s reforms to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) - reducing the number of tax brackets and simplifying compliance - are expected to support activity.

The forecast for FY26/27 has been downgraded, however, as a result of the imposition of a 50 percent tariff on about three-quarters of India’s goods exports to the United States. India had been expected to face lower U.S. tariffs than its competitors in April but as of the end of August it faces considerably higher tariffs. Almost one-fifth of India’s goods exports went to the United States in 2024, equivalent to about 2 percent of GDP.


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